Brazil set to process record 61 mln tonnes of soybeans in 2026, Abiove says

Brazil’s soybean crushing industry is poised to reach a record level in 2026, according to updated projections released on Thursday (22) by industry group Abiove. The association raised its estimate for soybean processing to 61 million tonnes, up 0.8% from the previous forecast of 60.5 million tonnes and 4.3% higher than the volume processed in 2025.

Abiove also revised upward its outlook for byproducts. Soybean meal output is now expected to reach 47 million tonnes, an increase of 0.9% from the prior estimate and 4.2% above last year’s level. Soybean oil production was revised up 0.8% to 12.25 million tonnes, which would represent growth of 4.7% year on year.

“By processing 61 million tonnes, we are adding value to our raw materials and ensuring the supply of protein and energy to both domestic and global markets,” said Daniel Furlan Amaral, Abiove’s director of economics and regulatory affairs.

Demand fundamentals remain supportive, particularly for soybean oil, driven by Brazil’s biodiesel mandate. Ariel Nunes, an analyst at Gran Center Commodities, said demand for soybean oil is expected to remain firm, while soybean meal consumption should also accelerate.

“In recent years, higher biodiesel blending has improved margins for crushers through soybean oil,” Nunes said. “As meal supply increases, prices tend to ease, and that more competitive pricing should stimulate additional demand.”

Abiove also increased its projection for exports of the soybean complex, a key segment for Brazil’s foreign trade and port logistics chain. Forecast soybean exports were raised 0.5% to 111.5 million tonnes in 2026, now implying growth of 3.1% compared with 2025.

Below is a historical overview of Brazilian soybean exports starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Soybean Exports | Jan 2022 – Nov 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Nunes described the estimate as optimistic, noting that while China is expected to remain a strong buyer of Brazilian soybeans in coming months, Beijing also maintains supply agreements with the United States. “Shipments are likely to slow in the second half of the year and reach closer to 107 million tonnes,” he said.

The association raised its forecast for soybean oil exports by 11.5% to 1.45 million tonnes, which would be 6.4% higher than in 2025. The estimate for soybean meal exports was left unchanged at 24.6 million tonnes, still representing growth of 5.6% year on year.

Beyond higher volumes, Abiove expects stronger prices to lift export revenues. The association projects that shipments of the soybean complex will generate $57.28 billion in export revenues in 2026, up 8.3% from the previous year. The average export price for soybeans is forecast to rise 5.6% to $425 per tonne.

For soybean meal, Abiove expects the average export price to fall 1.4% to $335 per tonne, while soybean oil prices are projected to increase 7.3% to an average of $1,140 per tonne.

Despite expectations of stronger domestic consumption of both meal and oil, Abiove forecasts that Brazil’s soybean ending stocks will rise sharply. Inventories at the end of 2026 are projected at 9.2 million tonnes, around 30% higher than at the end of 2025.

In 2025, Brazil processed 58.5 million tonnes of soybeans, producing 45.1 million tonnes of soybean meal and 11.7 million tonnes of soybean oil. Exports totalled 108.2 million tonnes of soybeans, 23.3 million tonnes of meal and 1.36 million tonnes of oil, while imports reached 969,000 tonnes of soybeans and 105,000 tonnes of soybean oil.

Source: Globo Rural

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