US tariffs halt record exports of Brazilian soluble coffee.

According to data from the 2025 Brazilian Soluble Coffee Report , prepared by the Brazilian Soluble Coffee Industry Association (ABICS), national exports of the product totaled 85,082 thousand tons, equivalent to 3.688 million 60 kg bags abroad last year, a volume that implied a 10.6% drop compared to the 95,221 thousand tons (4.127 million bags) recorded in the previous year.

On the other hand, foreign exchange generated from shipments grew by 14.4% compared to 2024, reaching a record US$1.099 billion. “This increase in value, despite the drop in volume, is attributed to the appreciation of the raw material price, both for Arabica and Canephora coffees ( Conilon and Robusta ), which raised the price of soluble coffee in the market,” explains Aguinaldo Lima, executive director of ABICS.

IMPACT OF THE 50% TARIFF ON THE US MARKET

The introduction of the 50% tariff on Brazilian soluble coffee imported by the United States had a significant impact on shipments of the product, which fell by 28.2% compared to 2024.

“During the period when this 50% tariff was applied, between August and December, the reduction was even more drastic: 40% compared to the same period of the previous year. This highlights the direct and immediate impact of the trade barrier on the competitiveness of domestic soluble coffee in this vital market,” Lima points out.

He notes that the tariff, which remains in effect on the product, makes Brazilian soluble coffee prohibitively expensive, leading US importers to seek alternatives in other competing countries that enjoy lower tariffs. “This results in a loss of market share for Brazil and an urgent need to reassess market diversification strategies,” he adds.

MAIN IMPORTERS

The USA, demonstrating the importance of this market to Brazilian soluble coffee, remained the main destination for exports, despite the 50% tariff increase in effect since August. In 2025, the Americans purchased the equivalent of 558,740 bags (-28.2%).

Rounding out the top 3 are Argentina, which imported 291,919 bags of the product, registering a growth of 40.2% compared to 2024, and Russia, with 278,050 bags, which implied an increase of 9.8% in the annual comparison.

Among the main destinations for soluble coffee in 2025, it is worth highlighting the presence of Indonesia, with 165,308 bags; Mexico, with 128,595 bags; Vietnam, with 118,691 bags; and, especially, Colombia, which increased its purchases by 178.2%, to 130,029 bags. “These countries stand out because they are large and traditional producers of soluble coffee,” informs the executive director of ABICS.

REDIRECTING AND TRADE AGREEMENTS

According to Lima, the tariffs imposed by the US and the subsequent drop in exports to Brazil’s main importer of soluble coffee indicate the need for the country to consider a possible redirection of the product to other markets, but the current scenario is critical and challenging.

“Brazil is a country with a relatively limited number of comprehensive trade agreements, and the tariffs imposed by other nations and economic blocs end up harming the competitiveness of Brazilian soluble coffee on the global stage,” he explains.

Furthermore, he explains that “it is not a simple task” to redirect such significant volumes, like those destined for the United States, in the short term.

“New markets need to be developed, and this demands time, investments in marketing, adaptation to different regulations and, crucially, the negotiation of favorable trade conditions, often through bilateral agreements or economic blocs. And this lack of pre-established agreements hinders a swift response to trade shocks such as the one imposed by the US,” concludes the ABICS executive.

DOMESTIC MARKET

In contrast to the volume exported, domestic consumption of soluble coffee reached a new record last year, when Brazil absorbed 27,008 thousand tons, equivalent to 1.170 million bags, an amount that represents a growth of 9.5% compared to 2024.

“This performance reflects a growing preference among Brazilian consumers for this type of coffee and the success of the soluble coffee industry’s strategies for the domestic market. Lower inflation on the product — 34% accumulated in 2024/25 compared to 75% for roasted and ground coffee — must also have contributed,” analyzes Aguinaldo Lima.

RISKS WITH TAX REFORM

The approval of the Tax Reform will eliminate, starting January 1, 2027, the social contributions on gross revenue (PIS/Pasep and COFINS) for the soluble coffee segment, which will prevent the presumed credit of 7.4% of the value of processed green coffee acquired for export from being calculated from that date.

Therefore, in the period between the first day of next year and December 31, 2032, during the transition to the new tax model, exports of soluble coffee will suffer an increase in their implicit cost due to the lack of a compensatory measure for the end of the presumed credit.

“The impact is devastating! With the end of the presumed credit, the Brazilian coffee industry, considering the average coffee prices in 2025, will lose R$ 430 million, which represents 7.4% of the value of soluble coffee exported last year. This is because, per sack, the presumed credit is equivalent to R$ 105.08 in residual taxes. Considering the average dollar exchange rate for sale in 2025, this R$ 105.08 corresponds to an increase of US$ 19.89 for each sack of this exported product, which means that, for every 14 sacks shipped, Brazil will ‘export’ one sack in taxes,” reveals the ABICS executive.

2026 OUTLOOK

The performance of Brazilian soluble coffee in 2025 highlights the dichotomy between a vibrant domestic market and the growing challenges in international trade. While domestic consumption shows great potential for growth, the possible loss of a significant portion of the North American market and vulnerability to protectionist measures, such as the 50% tariff, underscore the need for a more robust long-term export strategy.

The search for new markets and the intensification of trade agreement negotiations are imperative. The European Union, with its large volume of consumption and the prospects for tariff reductions through the Mercosur-EU agreement, represents a promising route in the medium and long term.

However, it is crucial that Brazil continues to diversify its export destinations, improve its competitiveness, and pursue a more active agenda of trade agreements that can mitigate the risks of market concentration and tariff barriers.

Additionally, one of the biggest challenges for 2026 will be seeking solutions with the Executive and Legislative branches of Brazil to mitigate the impacts of the loss of presumed credit with the Tax Reform.

The need for dialogue and proposals that can compensate for this competitive disadvantage becomes a fundamental pillar for the sustainability and growth of the sector.

“The record foreign exchange earnings achieved in 2025, in the face of a drop in export volume, demonstrates the resilience of a sector that, in the last six years, has invested no less than R$ 2.5 billion in new production plants, expansions and sustainability, which will require a strategic and proactive approach in the face of a constantly changing geopolitical, commercial and tax scenario,” concludes Lima.

Source: Abics

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