Furniture and mattress exports grow 0.8% in 2025

The year begins in a denser, more technically complex business environment, marked by shifts in international geopolitics, new trade dynamics, and structural pressures on global production chains. From January to December 2025, Brazilian furniture and mattress exports totaled US$ 769.3 million, up 0.8% from 2024.

Despite the positive result, the figure fell well short of initial expectations of around +2.5%, confirming a loss of momentum toward the end of the year:
– January to October: +2.1%
– Through November: +1.5%
– January to December (year-end): +0.8%

This trend indicates a slowdown following the end of the shipment anticipation seen at the start of the second half of the year, ahead of the implementation of the U.S. “tariff hike.” It also signals the exhaustion of short-term stimuli, greater caution in trade flows, and the need for a more structured internationalization strategy.

U.S. tariff hike

In this context, the U.S. market remains a critical variable. Abimóvel (the Brazilian Furniture Industry Association) is closely monitoring the imminent decision by the Suprema Corte dos Estados Unidos regarding the constitutionality of tariffs of up to 50% imposed on Brazilian imports, including furniture.

The sector reaches this point after a year of forced adjustments, marked by contract interruptions, production stoppages, layoffs, rising inventories, and financial restructuring driven by the tariff measures.

Although the United States remains the main destination for Brazilian furniture exports, its share dropped significantly in 2025, ending the year with a 23.5% market share, after years of operating near or above 30%.

It is also important to highlight the asymmetry of the impact: while Brazil accounts for less than 1% of total U.S. furniture imports (posing no threat to American industry), many Brazilian companies rely heavily on the U.S. market, with exports ranging from 30% to 100% of their sales.

On the other hand, there is a short-term positive sign: the U.S. government postponed until January 2027 the increase in additional duties on certain wood products and derivatives, including sawn wood, wood panels, upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanities. As a result, throughout 2026, rates between 10% and 25% will remain in place for most of these categories.

Current tariff framework:
– Softwood timber and lumber: tariff maintained at 10% ad valorem (Section 232)
– Wooden upholstered furniture: 25% ad valorem throughout 2026; increase to 30% postponed to January 1, 2027
– Kitchen cabinets and vanities (including parts): 25% ad valorem in 2026; increase to 50% postponed to January 1, 2027

The postponement temporarily reduces the risk of a new tariff shock but does not represent a normalization of market access conditions. The possibility of higher future surcharges remains tied to the Supreme Court’s ruling and to diplomatic negotiations between Brazil and the United States.

This situation also reinforces the perception of risk concentration in a single market, keeping business development efforts active in South America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. There is also concern that the U.S. move could set precedents for similar measures by other countries, as occurred with Mexico, further restricting international trade in manufactured goods and limiting Brazil’s short- and medium-term export redirection capacity.

“Regardless of the Supreme Court’s decision, foreign trade in the sector already operates under a new paradigm: more fragmented, more regulated, and less predictable. Even if tariffs fall, diversification of markets, stronger industrial competitiveness, and coordination between trade, economic, and industrial policy will still be necessary,” said Cândida Cervieri, executive director of Abimóvel and manager of the Brazilian Furniture Sector Project, in partnership with ApexBrasil.

Mercosul–União Europeia Agreement

On the external front, the Mercosur–European Union Agreement stands out as one of the most relevant recent developments in foreign trade, with the potential to expand Brazil’s access to one of the world’s largest furniture consumer markets.

After more than 25 years of negotiations, the agreement was officially signed on January 17, involving two blocs that together represent around 720 million consumers and a combined GDP exceeding US$ 22 trillion. For Brazil’s furniture industry, the agreement is strategic in the context of international repositioning. In 2025, the European Union accounted for 9.3% of Brazilian furniture and mattress exports, a trend on the rise.

With the treaty, preliminary studies by Abimóvel and Iemi indicate potential additional growth of up to 20% in the first year of implementation. However, the process faces institutional hurdles: the European Parliament has referred the agreement to the Court of Justice of the European Union for legal review, suspending the final vote and potentially delaying ratification by up to 24 months.

Source: E-Mobile

Sharing is caring!