Railways forecast record R$20bn in investments

Brazil’s railway sector is set to post a record level of investment this year, with around R$19.9 billion in projects scheduled, according to Davi Barreto, chief executive of ANTF, the National Association of Railway Transporters. In 2025, companies invested roughly R$19 billion, with the final figure still to be confirmed.

“2026 should consolidate itself as the year of the highest railway investment,” Barreto said. “And that’s only counting contracted investments, without including the renewal of FCA [Ferrovia Centro-Atlântica, operated by VLI] or new authorizations.”

He said the rise in construction activity reflects progress on contracts signed in recent years that are now gaining momentum, such as the early renewal of Rumo’s Malha Paulista concession, the renewal of MRS Logística’s contract, and Vale’s construction of Fico (the Central-West Integration Railway), among others.

The estimate also does not include new projects the federal government plans to put out to tender this year. Barreto said the sector is in a positive moment, with greater emphasis on new initiatives and regulatory improvements.

“The government tried to draw on the regulatory model used in the highway sector. It’s a more modern, pragmatic framework, with greater risk-sharing and a guideline that if there is a gap in NPV [Net Present Value, an indicator of a project’s viability], public funding should be injected. In the past, there were attempts to tweak spreadsheets to show a positive NPV. Today, there is a more pragmatic view,” he said.

On the other hand, he also pointed to challenges such as high interest rates and difficulties in attracting investment to new projects. “It’s hard to say whether the projects will move forward, but if two or three out of the eight [in the federal pipeline] get off the ground, that’s already an important step,” Barreto said.

In addition to record investments, the railway sector is expected to post the highest freight volumes ever recorded, with a total of 408 billion TKU (tonne-kilometer useful), 2.81% higher than the previous year, according to ANTF data.

Until now, the highest volume had been recorded in 2018, when 407 billion TKU were transported. “After that, there was a sharp drop due to Vale’s production halt following the Brumadinho disaster, which reduced volumes because iron ore is the railways’ main cargo. But since then other cargoes have been driving growth,” Barreto said.

Pulp accounts for just 2% of total volumes but posted strong growth of 26.1% in 2025 compared with the previous year. “It [pulp] has been steadily consolidating its presence on rail and has posted double-digit growth for 20 years,” he said.

Grains have also been gaining share in the rail mix. In 2025, soybeans accounted for about 6.5%. Solid bulk cargo overall rose 2.8% in rail shipments last year, ANTF said. Iron ore, however, remains the leading commodity, representing 67.7% of total volumes.

Despite gains in both investment and volumes, the railway sector still struggles to expand its share of the country’s logistics matrix. “The sector grows 4%, but agribusiness grows 6%. We need to grow faster than GDP [Gross Domestic Product] to regain market share. And doing that with public funding alone is difficult,” Barreto said.

Source: Valor International

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