Brazil fills 33% of China beef quota early

Brazil has already filled 33.6% of its annual beef export quota to China, prompting concern among domestic meatpackers over potential disruptions later this year. On Friday (20), China reported that Brazil shipped 372,300 tonnes to its market between January and February, out of a total quota of 1.1 million tonnes set for 2026.

According to Roberto Perosa, head of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (ABIEC), the figures underscore the urgency for the federal government to approve a system to control beef shipments to China, in order to avoid disorganization in the cattle supply chain in the second half of the year.

In Perosa’s view, without a government mechanism to regulate exports to China, the 1.1 million-tonne quota could be fully exhausted as early as May. If that happens, he said, the impact on meatpackers could include reduced cattle slaughter lines and higher prices for beef sold domestically, as companies seek to offset lost export revenue.

The result, he warned, could be more expensive beef for Brazilian consumers in the second half of the year, with potential inflationary effects.

“If quotas are regulated, volumes would last until September. Without that, they will run out in May. That would have a dual effect: a sharp drop in slaughter, due to a lack of sufficient export destinations, and an increase in domestic beef prices,” he told Valor.

Perosa added that export revenues are essential to the financial balance of meatpacking companies. Without that income, with China being the largest buyer of Brazilian beef, and with fixed costs unchanged, the likely outcome is higher prices for cuts sold in butcher shops and supermarkets across Brazil.

The Executive Management Committee (Gecex) of the Chamber of Foreign Trade (Camex) is expected to vote Thursday (26) on a proposal to establish a state-controlled system for managing China’s beef quota. The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC) did not immediately reply to Valor’s questions on whether the issue would be addressed.

In February, ABIEC submitted a proposal to the government outlining a quota management system. The plan calls for distributing export volumes proportionally among companies authorized to sell to China, based on their 2025 performance, with quarterly allocations through September. The aim is to ensure shipments depart Brazil and arrive at Chinese ports within the same calendar year, given that maritime transit can take up to 60 days.

The association argues the mechanism would help organize trade flows and prevent a rush by meatpackers to ship volumes early in order to avoid the 55% tariff applied to shipments exceeding the quota.

Perosa said the sector has already presented the technical and legal basis for the proposal to the federal government, as well as the potential damage to the domestic supply chain if no regulation is implemented. The Gecex vote has already been postponed twice.

He added that quota controls will be important not only this year but in the coming years, as China has set import volumes through 2028. In his assessment, the absence of government regulation could cause “significant damage to the sector in the medium term.”

Datamar data shows that Brazil exported 7,780 TEUs of beef to China in January 2026, marking a 4.8% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The following chart, compiled using intelligence from the DataLiner platform, details the monthly outbound shipments of Brazilian beef to the Chinese market:

Beef Exports to China | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

On Friday, China also released export data for other quota-eligible suppliers. In Brazil’s case, the figures differ from official data compiled by the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), which recorded shipments of 229,850 tonnes to China in the first two months of the year. Chinese authorities, however, track arrivals rather than shipments, meaning that cargoes dispatched from Brazilian ports last year only reached China in 2026, after the quota was announced.

Source: Valor International

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