USDA projects global beef exports will rise in 2026

Global beef exports are expected to increase in 2026, according to the latest revision from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which raised its forecast on the back of firmer international demand.

The global estimate for 2026 was revised upward to 13.81 million tonnes carcass-weight equivalent, up 2.05% from the previous forecast issued in December 2025, when expected volume stood at 13.53 million tonnes. Even so, the figure remains below the 2025 result of 13.93 million tonnes, which was considered a recent record.

For Brazil, the export forecast was also revised upward. The current estimate points to shipments of 4.28 million tonnes carcass-weight equivalent in 2026. In December 2025, the projection had been 4.00 million tonnes. Despite the upward revision, the projected volume is still expected to come in slightly below 2025, when the country exported 4.38 million tonnes.

Despite the improved outlook for Brazil, the report points to a downward revision in Chinese demand, the main destination for Brazilian beef. In December 2025, the forecast for China’s 2026 imports was 3.75 million tonnes carcass-weight equivalent. In the April update, that volume was cut 14.7% to 3.20 million tonnes, a reduction of more than 500,000 tonnes.

The chart below shows the growth in Brazilian beef exports, according to Datamar’s container throughput data:

Beef Exports | Jan 2023 – Feb 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

If the new estimate is confirmed, China’s beef imports in 2026 will be the lowest since 2021, signaling a meaningful slowdown in the world’s leading beef import market.

In the first quarter of 2026, Brazil’s fresh beef exports totaled 701,640 tonnes, up 19.7% from the same period of 2025, when shipments reached 586,360 tonnes.

In the same report, the USDA confirmed a decline in U.S. beef production in 2025, amid tighter cattle supplies and adjustments in the production structure. Total red meat output stood at 53.8 billion pounds, down 2% year on year.

Beef output reached 26.1 billion pounds, down 4%, while pork production totaled 27.6 billion pounds, up 1%, pointing to relative stability in that segment.

The data also underscore the regional concentration of production. Iowa accounted for 16.6% of the total, followed by Nebraska with 14.4%, Kansas with 10.4% and Texas with 8%, meaning the four states together represented nearly half of total U.S. red meat production.

In the industry, productive capacity expanded slightly. The number of federally inspected plants increased from 1,089 to 1,127 units, while the total number of establishments reached 2,923, with the addition of seven plants. Texas led the opening of new inspected units, with nine new registrations, bringing its total to 78 plants.

Source: report by Andressa Simão for CNN Brazil

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