Record harvest and increased crushing lift soybean, biodiesel value chain GDP by 11.7% in 2025

The GDP of Brazil’s soybean and biodiesel value chain grew 11.72% in 2025, according to studies conducted by Cepea, the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics at Esalq/USP, in partnership with Abiove, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries. The positive result was driven by a record soybean harvest in Brazil in the 2024/25 crop year and increased industrial processing of the oilseed, which boosted agricultural services and input suppliers. As a result, the value chain accounted for 21.6% of Brazil’s agribusiness GDP in 2025 and 5.4% of national GDP.

Cepea/Abiove data show a 2.71% increase in the input segment, reflecting the expansion of soybean acreage and greater production intensity among farmers, factors that stimulated pre-farmgate industries. For soybeans, the strong 23.41% increase in GDP in 2025 stemmed from higher production, which reached a record 171.5 million tonnes in 2024/25, according to Abiove.

In agroindustry, GDP rose 5.21% for the year, with growth across all subsegments. In soybean crushing, the 5.15% annual increase in GDP reflected strong demand for derivatives and ample soybean supply. According to Cepea/Abiove, domestic consumption grew, driven by biodiesel, while soybean oil exports also increased. Soybean meal posted record domestic consumption, along with higher exports. Crushing volumes reached record levels in both Brazil and the world.

In biodiesel, the strong GDP growth of 8.51% reflected firm demand, supported by the increase in Brazil’s mandatory biodiesel blend from 14% to 15% as of Aug. 1, leading to another record production level in 2025. In the animal feed industry, the 2.80% increase was driven by sales to the poultry sector, supported by domestic demand, according to Sindirações.

Lastly, GDP from agricultural services grew 9.4% in 2025, driven by significant gains in both farming and agroindustry. Despite the positive GDP performance, real income in the value chain edged down 0.55% due to a deterioration in relative prices, which fell 10.98%. The bearish price environment resulted from ample global supply of soybeans and derivatives, partially offset by firm demand for these products.

Considering value added per tonne in 2025, the GDP generated per tonne of soybeans produced and processed, at R$7,608, was 4.09 times higher than the GDP generated by soybeans produced and exported directly, at R$1,862.

Foreign trade

Exports from the soybean and biodiesel value chain totaled 133.72 million tonnes in 2025, up 7.75% from 2024. Export revenue, however, fell 1.46% year on year to US$53.46 billion in 2025, reflecting an 8.54% decline in the chain’s average export prices.

Overall, international prices came under pressure from ample global supply across the value chain, even as demand remained strong. Export revenue increased for soybeans, up 1.36%; soybean oil, up 10.39%; biodiesel, up 33.32%; and glycerol, up 114.95%. Revenue fell for soybean meal, down 18.43%, and soy protein, down 0.77%. China remained the main destination, but shipments also rose significantly to other markets, including the European Union, up 7.62%; Southeast Asia, up 2.09%; and India, up 20.35%.

Source: Cepea/Abiove

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