Brazil to export record coffee volume, El Nino in focus, trading firm says

Brazil will export a record volume of coffee in the new crop year that starts in July because of likely all-time-high coffee production, an executive for EISA, the Brazilian arm of global soft commodities trader ECOM, said ​on Wednesday (20).

Farmers and traders, however, will closely watch the development of the weather anomaly ​El Nino for any potential impact on the next crop, EISA’s director ⁠Carlos Santana told Reuters on the sidelines of a coffee conference in the port city ​of Santos.

“Maybe in July, or August, we are going to start to see this,” Santana ​said about larger volumes of coffee shipments from the world’s largest grower and exporter. He said farmers would be incentivized to sell quickly since the market is inverted, meaning there are higher prices now than in the future, ​and estimated exports of green coffee would probably reach around 50 million 60-kg bags.

Brazil last hit ​a record export volume in 2024 with 46.3 million bags of green coffee, according to industry group CECAFE.

The following table compares the performance of the leading coffee export terminals in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 against the same period last year. This data is sourced from Datamar’s DataLiner platform:

Top Coffee Terminals | Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025 | TEUs

Principais Terminais de Café | Jan-Mar 2026 vs. Jan-Mar 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The executive ‌from ⁠EISA, one of the largest exporters of Brazilian coffee, estimated that around 5% of the Brazilian crop this year had been collected.

EISA estimated earlier in the year that Brazil would produce 75.8 million 60-kg bags of coffee in 2026/27, from July to June.

Santana said Brazilian shipments would ​help to replenish stocks in ​consuming countries, which are at historically low ⁠levels after production shortfalls in some of the top growing countries in previous years that caused coffee prices to spike.

He also said that ​the El Nino weather event could impact prospects for next year’s crop in ​Brazil.

While El ⁠Nino could have a positive aspect because its warmer conditions may prevent frosts occurring, Santana said the heat could potentially hurt the coffee flowering stage that happens around September or October.

Santana said he believed El Nino ⁠would eventually ​influence farmers’ selling strategies further ahead. If it proves ​more negative than positive for coffee trees, producers could reduce their selling pace.

Source: Reuters

Sharing is caring!