Brazilian cotton crop seen as second-largest on record as exports strengthen global lead

Brazil is set to further consolidate its position as a major player in the global cotton market. According to Rabobank’s June 2026 AgroInfo report, Brazil’s 2025/26 cotton crop is expected to reach about 4 million tonnes of lint, the second-largest output in the country’s history, while exports continue at a record pace.

The forecast reflects the continued expansion of Brazil’s cotton sector, supported by strong crop yields despite a slight reduction in planted area. Rabobank said favorable weather during the crop cycle offset an approximately 2% decline in acreage, allowing Brazil to maintain a strong production performance.

Exports reinforce Brazil’s global role

Export figures also confirm the strength of Brazilian cotton in international markets. From August 2025 through May 2026, lint shipments totaled about 3 million tonnes, up 17% from the same period in the previous season.

The result was supported by high monthly export volumes, especially during the second quarter, consolidating Brazil’s position as the world’s largest cotton exporter during the year.

Global market remains challenging

Despite the positive outlook for Brazilian output, the global market remains uncertain.

USDA projections cited by Rabobank point to an approximately 5% decline in global cotton production in the 2026/27 crop year, while global consumption is expected to grow by only 1.5%. That imbalance should reduce international stocks, but not enough to trigger a sustained price recovery.

Rabobank said macroeconomic factors continue to limit global demand for textile products. Persistent inflation, weaker consumer purchasing power and higher logistics costs, driven by rising oil prices, continue to weigh on the sector. Geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran are also adding uncertainty to the international fiber market.

Prices expected to remain stable

Even after a recent recovery in New York futures, cotton prices in Brazilian reais are still down about 3% over the past 12 months.

Rabobank expects prices to remain relatively stable in the coming months, reflecting moderate global demand, economic risks and possible weather effects linked to El Niño.

The bank also noted that part of global production remains exposed to weather conditions, which could affect both supply and the pace of Brazilian exports if adverse conditions emerge during crop development.

Domestic sales ahead of average

In Brazil’s domestic market, cotton sales are moving quickly.

Data from Mato Grosso’s agricultural economics institute, IMEA, cited in the report show that cotton lint sales in the state have already reached 72% of expected production, four percentage points above the five-year average. The pace was supported by the recent rise in international prices, encouraging both sales of the current crop and forward contracts for the 2026/27 season.

Crops are developing well in Brazil’s main producing regions. Harvesting has already started in Bahia and Mato Grosso do Sul, while Mato Grosso is expected to begin fieldwork in the coming weeks.

Outlook

Rabobank’s outlook suggests Brazil will remain a strategic player in global cotton trade. High productivity, strong export performance and the competitiveness of Brazilian lint continue to strengthen the country’s position in international markets.

Still, the direction of the global economy, geopolitical tensions and the potential effects of El Niño will remain key factors for prices and demand in the next season.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

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