Brazil could overtake U.S. as world’s top agricultural exporter, FT says

The United States risks losing its position as the world’s largest agricultural exporter to Brazil, according to a report published by the Financial Times on Tuesday, July 21.

Figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry show that U.S. agricultural exports totaled $171 billion in 2025, just $2 billion more than Brazil’s. In 2021, the gap between the two countries stood at $56 billion.

Brazilian agricultural exports rose 6% in the first half of 2026 to a record $87 billion, the report said. The growth reflects not only Brazil’s position as the world’s largest producer of soybeans, beef and poultry, but also its success in commodities such as cotton, where it has overtaken the United States as the leading exporter.

According to Datamar data, containerized cotton exports rose 24.3% year to date compared with the same period last year. See the monthly volumes below:

Cotton Exports | Jan 2023-May 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

China reshapes global agricultural trade

Analysts interviewed by the British newspaper, which reported from the U.S. state of Iowa and Brazil’s Mato Grosso state, said the shift has been driven largely by trade disruptions triggered by tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

China, one of the world’s largest agricultural importers, sharply reduced purchases from the United States after Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, during his first term in office.

A chart accompanying the report shows that China imported similar volumes of soybeans from Brazil and the United States in 2016. Brazilian shipments were already increasing at the time, but at a more moderate pace.

Growth accelerated after Beijing retaliated against Washington’s tariffs in 2018. In 2025, Brazil exported more than 80 million metric tons of soybeans to China, while U.S. shipments remained below 10 million metric tons.

The figures come from UN Comtrade, the United Nations database considered one of the world’s largest and most comprehensive public repositories of international trade statistics.

The Financial Times said that while U.S. farmers remain capable of producing “extraordinary crops,” profit margins are disappearing as trade tensions and low commodity prices weigh on the agricultural economy of the Midwest.

The American Farm Bureau Federation, the largest U.S. organization representing farmers and ranchers, estimates that producers could face losses in 2027 of $138 per acre for soybeans, $167 for corn, $145 for wheat and $406 for cotton.

The rise of Mato Grosso

The newspaper noted that the strength of Brazilian agriculture is not simply a consequence of U.S. trade policy, but the result of changes developed over several decades.

Brazil, now also a leading exporter of coffee, sugar and orange juice, still relied on agricultural imports to feed its population until the 1970s.

That began to change as the country took greater advantage of its vast territory and climate, which allow farmers in some regions to harvest two or even three crops in a single year.

The expansion was supported partly by the availability and relatively low cost of land, particularly in agricultural frontier regions. Production also spread into areas once considered infertile or difficult to cultivate, made viable through the treatment of nutrient-poor soils and the development of crop varieties adapted to the local climate.

“This continuous production model helps spread fixed costs and generally improves farm margins,” Raphael Bulascoschi, an analyst at commodities brokerage StoneX, told the Financial Times.

Brazilian agriculture is also preparing for less favorable conditions, the report said. Challenges include high domestic interest rates, lower commodity prices and rising fertilizer costs following the war between Iran and Israel. Brazil imports the vast majority of the fertilizers used by its agricultural sector.

Source: G1

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