U.S. tariffs and global turmoil drive up export logistics costs

August is beginning with a more crowded, expensive and uncertain outlook for ocean freight.

Ten days after the United States announced an additional 25% tariff on Brazilian products, exporters are facing lower vessel availability, shifting international routes and uncertainty caused by the war in the Middle East.

According to international logistics consultancies, current logistics costs reflect a combination of three factors:

1. the war in the Middle East;
2. the reorganization of the global fleet following U.S. tariff measures;
3. capacity management by shipping lines.

Together, these factors help explain why freight rates remain high even after a slight easing in global indexes.

The impact goes beyond the goods directly hit by tariffs. Soybeans, corn, coffee, sugar, cotton and meat all depend on maritime transport to reach major consumer markets. More expensive freight — or a lack of vessel space — raises operating costs, reduces export competitiveness and makes logistics planning harder during the shipping season.

Global ocean freight rates are expected to remain elevated, above $4,000 per 40-foot container on routes from China, a key benchmark for logistics costs worldwide. Shipping costs are therefore likely to influence commodity flows and add to the challenges facing agricultural supply chains, according to consultancies and industry analysts.

Foreign trade specialist Jackson Campos said freight pressure is expected to increase between August and December.

He said ocean freight from China rose sharply over the course of 2026.

“Freight from China went from around $1,000 per container in January to $6,000 in July, at times coming close to $8,000,” Campos said.

That represents an increase of at least 500% in seven months.

China trade lanes are considered a reference point for the global market because they concentrate the world’s largest container flows.

When freight rates rise in Asia, shipping lines tend to move vessels to those more profitable routes, reducing capacity in other regions and pushing up prices internationally.

In Brazil’s case, Campos said export freight rates have not seen a similar spike. Instead, the main bottleneck is vessel space.

“Freight itself is relatively stable, but securing space to ship cargo has become very difficult,” he said.

According to Campos, the shortage is not directly the result of Brazilian exporters rushing to bring forward shipments to the United States before the new tariffs took effect.

In his view, the time between the announcement and implementation of the measures was too short for cargo to reach its destination before the surcharge began to apply.

The shift, he said, is mainly linked to strong demand for transport to the U.S. market.

“Demand for freight to the United States remains high because of consumption. As a result, carriers are shifting vessels that previously served other routes, including routes linked to Brazil, reducing space availability and keeping freight rates elevated,” Campos said.

Data from Drewry’s World Container Index, a key benchmark for short-term global freight pricing, show that although the global index fell 3% on July 30 to $4,255 per 40-foot container, rates remain historically high.

Drewry attributed the decline to weaker demand on some routes and capacity management by shipping lines, which continue to cancel sailings, known as blank sailings, to prevent a sharper drop in rates.

The consultancy also said the market remains under the influence of new U.S. trade tariffs and tensions in the Middle East.

The conflict has led several shipping companies to announce emergency fuel surcharges starting in August, while uncertainty over global trade, geopolitical risks and port congestion continue to shape freight market behavior.

Campos said oil prices still influence freight pricing, but their effect is now smaller than at the beginning of the crisis.

“The market has already incorporated that volatility into freight rates. What matters more now is the reorganization of routes and the availability of capacity,” he said.

On vessel space, Campos said demand has exceeded available capacity. Some ships may have room for 5,000 containers, while demand reaches twice that amount.

Global consumption is expected to intensify through November, as retailers also prepare imports for Black Friday and Christmas. That is likely to add further cost pressure for Brazilian industries.

In the short term, Brazil has benefited from exporting more cargo than ships can accommodate, bringing more dollars into the country and supporting the trade balance.

However, industry sources warn that as long as geopolitical uncertainty and the redistribution of the global vessel fleet persist, commodity exporters will have to deal with more expensive logistics, tighter vessel space and higher costs to reach major consumer markets.

China trade lanes set the tone for global freight

China routes work as a kind of thermometer for global ocean freight because most of the world’s traded manufactured goods leave Chinese ports.

Millions of containers depart China every month for the United States, Europe, Latin America and other regions.

As the world’s largest export hub, China has an outsized effect on shipping markets. When freight rates rise on Chinese trade lanes, carriers shift vessels to those more profitable routes, reducing supply elsewhere and pushing up ocean freight prices globally.

Source: CNN Brasil

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