Brazil beef exports slow in August but may top 5 million tons in 2027

Brazil beef exports lost momentum in August as new access conditions in China weighed on shipments. Despite the short-term slowdown, Brazil is expected to maintain its leadership in the global beef trade and could export 5.043 million metric tons in carcass-weight equivalent in 2027.

The forecast from Safras & Mercado represents a 1% increase from the 4.993 million metric tons projected for 2026. The advance, however, is expected to come in a context of lower domestic production and a greater need to diversify buyer markets.

Daily beef export average falls 26%

In the first two weeks of August, the daily average of Brazilian beef shipments fell 26% from the same period in 2025, according to economist André Galhardo Fernandes.

The slowdown came after China’s 1.106 million-ton quota was filled. Volumes above that limit are subject to a 55% surcharge, in addition to the regular 12% tariff, reducing the competitiveness of Brazilian beef in that market.

The change has a significant impact on meatpackers, since China remains the main destination for beef produced in Brazil. From January to July, the Asian country accounted for 45% of the volume and 47% of the revenue from Brazilian beef exports.

China remains top destination for Brazilian beef

Even with the restrictions, Brazilian beef sales to China rose 31% in the period analyzed, reaching $5.34 billion. Exports to Asian countries as a whole increased 27%, rising from $5.9 billion to $7.5 billion.

The performance reinforces Asia’s importance for Brazilian cattle ranching and beef processing, but it also highlights the sector’s heavy dependence on China. No other single market can absorb the same volume purchased by the country.

Against that backdrop, meatpackers and exporters are stepping up the search for alternative markets to reduce the impact of tariffs and preserve shipment flows.

Vietnam gains ground among buyers

Vietnam posted the strongest growth among Asian destinations. Brazil’s revenue from beef sales to the country jumped from $150,000 to $28.05 million, an increase of 18,553%.

Other markets also expanded purchases of Brazilian beef. Exports to Hong Kong rose 55%, while shipments to South Korea climbed 90%. Indonesia posted a 21% increase.

In 2026, Brazil raised to eight the number of meatpacking plants authorized to export beef to Vietnam. The expansion of approvals strengthens the country’s trade diversification strategy and may open room for new business in Southeast Asia.

According to André Galhardo Fernandes, rising sales to Vietnam and other countries in the region may signal a reorganization of trade flows that had originally been directed to China. That movement, however, still needs to be monitored to determine whether it reflects a lasting shift or only a temporary adjustment.

Brazil could export 5.043 million tons in 2027

Although the sector faces short-term obstacles, the outlook for Brazil beef exports remains positive. Safras & Mercado estimates shipments of 5.043 million metric tons in carcass-weight equivalent in 2027, compared with 4.993 million metric tons projected for 2026.

The expected 1% growth would come despite a forecast decline in national production. According to the consultancy, Brazil could produce 10.807 million metric tons of beef in 2027, down 2.04% from the 11.032 million metric tons estimated for 2026.

The figures indicate that foreign markets will continue to absorb a large share of Brazilian output, increasing the importance of opening and consolidating new destinations.

Domestic beef supply expected to decline

Beef availability in Brazil’s domestic market is expected to reach 5.904 million metric tons in 2027. That would represent a 4.48% decline from the 6.076 million metric tons forecast for 2026.

Brazilian beef imports, meanwhile, could rise 7.13%, from 37,720 metric tons in 2026 to 40,410 metric tons next year, according to a forecast presented by Safras & Mercado analyst Fernando Iglesias.

The combination of lower production, higher exports and reduced domestic supply could influence beef prices in Brazil. Domestic consumption and live cattle prices will be decisive in determining the scale of that impact.

Diversification will be key for meatpackers

The ability to expand sales to Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia, Hong Kong and other markets will be critical to reducing dependence on China and sustaining export growth.

If meatpackers are unable to redirect volumes affected by Chinese restrictions, part of the production could remain in the Brazilian market or be sold to smaller destinations. That scenario would likely increase pressure on live cattle prices and industry margins.

On the other hand, the forecast that shipments could exceed 5 million metric tons in carcass-weight equivalent in 2027 shows that international demand for Brazilian beef remains strong. The challenge will be turning the current diversification of buyers into a permanent strategy capable of balancing trade risks and expanding Brazil’s presence in the global protein market.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

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