Oil overtakes soybeans as Brazil’s top export this year

Oil drove Brazil’s exports in September and overtook soybeans as the country’s top export in the year through the month. Soybeans had held the lead through August.

Both commodities helped sustain export growth as shipments benefited from higher volumes and prices, a combination that also supported other raw materials. On the import side, activity slowed in September once extraordinary factors are stripped out. Economists expect that trend to remain broadly unchanged in the coming months.

Trade surplus

Brazil posted a trade surplus of $7.7 billion in September, data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) showed. Exports totaled $34.4 billion, while imports reached $26.7 billion.

The surplus reached $62.4 billion in the first nine months of the year, up 34.8% from the same period of 2025. Exports rose 10.4% to $284.7 billion, while imports increased 5% to $222.3 billion.

Luiza Pinese, an economist at XP, noted that imports fell 2.4% in September from a year earlier. The comparison, she said, was distorted by the purchase of an oil platform in September 2025, which was not repeated this year.

Excluding that transaction, imports rose 6.6%, but at a slower pace than in July and August, Pinese said. In the 12 months through September, the trade surplus stood at $84.2 billion.

Oil takes the lead

Oil was the standout among Brazilian exports in September, with shipments reaching $6.5 billion, up 77.3% from the same month of 2025. Export volumes increased 42.2%, while average prices rose 24.7%.

That performance pushed oil to the top of Brazil’s export ranking for the year. Oil exports totaled $43 billion from January through September, up 28.6% from the same period of 2025.

Soybeans ranked second, with exports of $42.9 billion, up 14.9%. Together, oil and soybeans accounted for 30.2% of Brazil’s exports in the first nine months, compared with 27.5% a year earlier.

Iron ore ranked third, although exports slipped slightly this year. Shipments totaled $20.1 billion in the nine-month period, down 2.2% from the same period of 2025.

“Copper ore prices rose as demand from data centers increased,” Pinese said.

She highlighted the recovery in oil export volumes after two consecutive monthly declines, in line with record domestic production. Copper ore also contributed, with both prices and volumes increasing.

MDIC data show exports of copper ore reached $6.2 billion from January through September, 79.8% more than in the same period of 2025. The product has gained prominence in Brazilian exports this year as growing demand from artificial intelligence data centers pushed copper prices to record highs, Pinese said.

Welber Barral, a partner at BMJ, said exports have been driven mainly by the extractive sector, with rising prices making a major contribution. While that has supported Brazilian shipments this year, it also leaves the trade balance vulnerable to swings in commodity prices.

China and U.S. shifts

Among Brazil’s main export destinations, September brought a decline in shipments to China and an increase in sales to the United States. Tariff policies played a role in both trends.

Herlon Brandão, MDIC’s director of foreign trade statistics and studies, said the 7.6% decline in Brazilian exports to China was largely driven by a sharp drop in beef shipments, which were affected by a quota imposed by Beijing. Beef exports to China plunged 93.5% from September 2025, he said.

As Valor previously reported, imports of Brazilian beef into China under safeguard measures have already reached 100% of the quota set for 2026. With the quota exhausted, additional shipments entering China this year are subject to an out-of-quota tariff of 55%, weighing on export volumes.

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