WTO raises global merchandise trade forecast to 3.9% for 2026

The World Trade Organization has sharply raised its forecast for global merchandise trade in 2026, saying supply chains have adapted better than expected to disruptions in the Middle East while booming investment in artificial intelligence has generated strong demand for traded goods.

World merchandise trade volume is now expected to grow 3.9% in 2026, more than double the WTO’s 1.9% baseline forecast issued in March. Growth is projected to accelerate slightly to 4.1% in 2027, up from the previous forecast of 2.6%.

Trade volumes expanded 3.5% year over year in the first half of 2026, despite disruptions to energy, fertilizer and transportation markets. The dollar value of merchandise trade increased much faster, by 15%, reflecting higher energy prices and particularly strong demand for AI-related products.

Global merchandise trade supported by supply-chain shifts

The WTO said global supply chains responded to Middle East disruptions by turning to alternative suppliers and transport routes, limiting the impact on worldwide trade flows.

Middle Eastern crude oil exports fell about 24% year over year during the first half, while liquefied natural gas shipments dropped 47%. Higher exports from alternative suppliers, however, limited the decline in worldwide crude oil exports to 6% and LNG exports to just 1%.

Fertilizer trade followed a similar pattern, with alternative suppliers helping fill gaps and cargo flows being redirected through different ports and corridors.

The changes highlight how shipping networks have adjusted to disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding trade lanes. Earlier WTO estimates had warned that higher energy prices and interruptions to Persian Gulf shipments could significantly weaken merchandise trade growth in 2026.

Container activity has remained resilient as well. Global container throughput increased 3.9% year over year between the beginning of 2026 and mid-July, according to the WTO.

AI-related trade jumps 67%

A surge in trade linked to artificial intelligence was the other major driver of the upward revision.

Trade in AI-enabling goods, including semiconductors and servers, jumped 67% year over year in the first half of 2026 and accounted for 47% of the increase in global merchandise trade value during the period.

The gains reflect heavy investment in semiconductors, computing infrastructure and data centers, generating cross-border demand for equipment and components.

That growth is geographically concentrated. Asia is expected to lead merchandise trade expansion this year, with exports forecast to rise 9.9% and imports 9.5%. North American exports are projected to increase 5.7%, while imports rise a more modest 1.4%.

The Middle East faces the opposite trend, with merchandise exports forecast to fall 17.2% and imports 15.4% amid the regional conflict.

Services trade outlook weakens

The stronger outlook for physical goods contrasts with a weaker forecast for international services.

The WTO lowered its projection for commercial services trade growth in 2026 to 3.3%, from 4.8% in March. Transport services are now expected to grow only 0.9%, while travel services are forecast to increase just 0.2%.

Higher aviation fuel costs and disruptions associated with the Middle East conflict have weighed particularly heavily on those sectors.

Services trade is expected to rebound more strongly in 2027, with the WTO forecasting growth of 6.4%.

Energy costs and trade disruptions remain risks

Despite the upgrade, the WTO warned that the outlook remains vulnerable to renewed disruptions.

Higher fuel and fertilizer costs associated with interruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could weaken household purchasing power and global demand. A slowdown in AI investment would also remove one of the strongest sources of merchandise trade growth this year.

The WTO’s new forecast nevertheless represents a substantial shift from its assessment in March, when it expected global merchandise trade growth to slow sharply in 2026.

The first-half results instead show international goods flows continuing to expand as energy suppliers, ports, transport routes and buyers adjust to changing trade conditions, while unusually strong demand for technology equipment provides an additional boost to global cargo movements.

Source: WTO

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