Brazil soybean exports rise as sector GDP growth nears 7.2%

Brazil’s soybean exports and overseas shipments of related products continued to expand in the second quarter of 2026, supported by a record harvest and stronger international demand, while the broader soybean and biodiesel supply chain is expected to grow more than 7% this year.

Exports from the chain totaled 54.2 million metric tons between April and June, up 9.2% from the same period in 2025. Export revenue rose even faster, climbing 18.7% to US$23.09 billion, according to a study released by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea) and the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industries Association (Abiove).

The increase reflected both higher shipment volumes and stronger average export prices.

Based on second-quarter data, Cepea and Abiove project that the soybean and biodiesel chain’s GDP will expand 7.21% in 2026, following growth of 11.72% in 2025. If confirmed, the sector would account for 21.5% of Brazil’s agribusiness GDP and 4.9% of the country’s overall economy.

China, India and Europe support Brazil soybean exports

China remained the leading destination for Brazilian soybean shipments during the second quarter, as strong international demand and a record domestic harvest supported exports of the oilseed.

Soybean oil exports also benefited from overseas demand, particularly for feedstocks used in biofuel production. India stood out as the main source of growth in Brazilian soybean oil shipments.

Soybean meal exports, meanwhile, were supported by stronger demand from the European Union and Asian buyers, with Europe and the Middle East featuring prominently among destinations during the quarter.

The differing destination markets highlight the range of international trade flows supported by Brazil’s soybean industry, from unprocessed grain shipments to exports of meal and oil.

Smaller products within the supply chain showed contrasting results.

Glycerin exports rose 15%, an increase of 26,000 metric tons, with China remaining the principal destination. Biodiesel shipments, however, fell 50.3%, or 18,000 metric tons, with the European Union identified as the main overseas market.

Record soybean crop drives industrial processing

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest is estimated at approximately 180 million metric tons by Abiove, supporting expectations of continued growth in agricultural production and industrial processing.

Cepea and Abiove project that GDP generated by soybean farming will increase 7.54% in 2026, reflecting an expansion in planted area, technological improvements and high average yields under generally favorable weather conditions.

The agro-industrial segment is expected to grow by slightly more than 8%, supported by abundant soybean supplies and demand for processed products in domestic and international markets.

Abiove forecasts a record 63.6 million metric tons of soybeans crushed in 2026, with soybean meal production increasing 9% and soybean oil output rising 7.3%.

Domestic demand is also contributing to the expansion.

Brazilian animal feed production is expected to grow 4.6% to approximately 94.9 million metric tons this year, according to Sindirações, reflecting growth in the poultry, pork and cattle industries.

In biodiesel, demand has benefited from the mandatory B15 blend, which requires 15% biodiesel in diesel fuel.

Higher output and exports lift demand for port and logistics services

The expansion in agricultural production, industrial processing and exports is also supporting the services segment of Brazil’s soybean and biodiesel supply chain.

Cepea and Abiove expect agribusiness-related services GDP to grow 7.3% in 2026, reflecting increased demand for transportation, storage, commercialization and port services.

The study links that growth to the record harvest, higher processing activity and increased export volumes.

The expected expansion spans several activities along the supply chain, from moving soybeans out of producing regions to storing, handling and shipping grain and processed products to overseas markets.

Investment in agricultural inputs is also expected to increase. The study projects 2.67% growth in the input segment, as expanded soybean acreage and more intensive crop management raise demand for seeds, fertilizers, crop protection products and agricultural technology.

Domestic processing generates nearly four times more GDP per ton

The study also highlights the economic contribution of processing soybeans domestically rather than exporting them directly as unprocessed grain.

Based on data available through the second quarter, Cepea and Abiove estimate that each metric ton of soybeans produced and processed in Brazil generates R$6,788 in GDP across the supply chain, compared with R$1,743 per ton when soybeans are produced and exported without domestic processing.

That represents a 3.89-fold difference in GDP generated per ton.

Employment figures point to a similar pattern.

For every 1,000 metric tons of soybeans produced and processed, the supply chain supports an estimated 26 jobs, compared with 6.2 jobs when the grain is produced and exported directly.

Overall, Brazil’s soybean and biodiesel supply chain employed 2.5 million people in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 7.86%, or approximately 182,000 workers, from a year earlier.

Employment rose across all major segments, including soybean farming, agro-industry, agricultural inputs and services. The soybean crushing and refining segment recorded particularly strong employment growth of nearly 42%, reflecting increased industrial activity and capacity utilization.

The latest findings underscore the expanding role of domestic processing alongside Brazil’s established soybean export business.

While record agricultural production continues to support large volumes of outbound cargo, the growth of soybean meal, oil and biodiesel production is also increasing the economic activity associated with transporting, processing, storing and marketing the country’s soybean harvest.

Source: Cepea/Esalq-USP

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