The 2021/22 grain harvest grows 4% to 265.7 million tonnes

According to the 6th 2021-22 Harvest Survey conducted by the National Supply Company (Conab), grain production should reach 265.7 million tonnes after an increase in production of more than 10 million tonnes compared to the previous cycle.

Published this Thursday (March 10), the survey also shows an increase of 4.3% in crop area (3 million hectares), reaching, in total, 72.7 million hectares thanks to the production growth of soybeans and corn.

Despite the expected increase in harvest yields, experts saw a 0.9% loss over the last month’s production volume when 268.2 million tonnes were expected. Such a drop reflects the consequences of severe drought, especially in Brazil’s southern states and in the center-south of Mato Grosso do Sul. Adverse wheater conditions severely impacted the production of soybeans and corn in this year’s first harvest.

Soybean planting was completed on 40.7 million hectares, a 3.8% increase in planted area over the 2021/22 crop. With this, the attention is naturally turned to the oilseed harvest, which is already 50% completed across the country. According to Conab’s studies, the current productivity rates reflect the weather conditions observed during the harvest. In total, the production shall reach 122.76 million tonnes.

The progress of the soybean harvest dictates the pace of the planting of corn’s second harvest. Conab estimates that 74.8% of this area is already sown. Mato Gross is the state that stood out the most in this respect, with 94% of its crop already planted. As a result, the total crop area shall reach 16 million hectares, up 6.7% from the previous harvest cycle.

Furthermore, Conab currently predicts that total cereal production will grow 29%, reaching 112.3 million tonnes. Such growth derives from the performance of the second grain harvest, which tends to increase from 60.7 million tonnes in the 2020/21 period to 86.2 million tonnes.

Cotton yields are also likely to increase by 19.7%, reaching approximately 6.9 million tonnes, of which 2.82 million tonnes are just lint.

Conversely, the first beans harvest cycle was partially compromised due to adverse weather conditions. As a result, second-harvest crops are either being implemented or fully developed to ensure a good result, ensuring consumer market supply and balancing grain supply.

The market

Conab’s survey maintained its previous estimate of a cotton export growth of 2.5% compared to last year in respect to the foreign market. The volume expected is 2.95 million tonnes. For soybeans, corn, and beans, the forecasts were kept at their previous value, 80 million tonnes, 35 million tonnes, and 200 thousand tonnes, respectively.

As for wheat, shipments shall remain above the historical average, with more than 800,000 tonnes being sold in February, according to data by the Foreign Trade Secretariat. Thus, the exports of the 2021 harvest, whose commercial year runs until July, can still increase. The new forecast is that 2.1 million tonnes will be shipped by the end of this period.

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