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South American countries to overtake US as primary soybean exporter in 2019

Dec, 03, 2018 Posted by datamarnews

Week 201849

As China seeks alternative import sources for soybeans due to its trade war with the US, South American countries are set to overtake the US as the leader in exports of the commodity.  Argentina is expected to produce more than 50m tons of soybeans in 2019, of which 15m tons are expected to be shipped.  Exports to China are forecast to rise from an average of 7-8m tons over the past few years, to 10-12m tons in 2019. Meanwhile Brazil is forecast to produce a record 120-125m tons next year.

Supporting Sources:

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1129540.shtml

South American soybean exports to China to see sharp increase as US loses out

The US is about to lose its leading position in global soybean exports to South American countries in 2019 as China seeks new import sources under the impact of the escalating China-US trade war, industrial sources said.
It is estimated that Argentina, a major global soybean producer, will raise its soy exports to China from an average of 7-8 million tons in the past several years, up to 10-15 million tons in 2019, Nicolas Pawlusiak, a spokesperson with the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR), which is based in Santa Fe, Argentina, told the Global Times on Thursday.
The growth in soybean exports from South American countries is caused by the decline in US exports to China, Pawlusiak said.
“Total soybean production in Argentina in 2019 is expected to be more than 50 million tons, of which 15 million tons are for the export market, most of which will be sold to China. It’s twice the average of the past five years,” Pawlusiak said.
Zou Yesheng, deputy general manager of COFCO International Argentina estimated that China’s soybean imports from Argentina will average 10-12 million tons in 2019. The US exported 30 million tons to China annually in past years.
Brazil, another major soybean producer, is predicted to produce a record high of 120-125 million tons in 2019.
Analysts said the spike in production from South America will challenge the US’ leading position in global supply. And increase of US soybean inventories, combined with the changes in the global market will influence the pricing system.
Argentine President Mauricio Macri’s government hoped to announce the soymeal-to-China agreement at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires at the end of this month, Reuters reported on November 29.
There is no specific timetable yet for the deal to be signed between the two countries, several sources told the Global Times.
This year Argentina resumed soybean oil exports to China after three years, Pawlusiak said.
Pawlusiak said that he believes if trade tensions between China and the US keep escalating, South American soybean meal and soybean oil will also likely to see rising exports to China.

 

 

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