Argentina: soy complex exports to fall 20% in MY 2022/23

According to a report by the Rosario Grains Exchange, Argentine exports of the soy complex should fall 20% in 2022/23, to around US$ 4.5 billion, as a result of the severe drought and a decrease in crop area. According to the institution, grain sales are at their lowest point in 21 years.

“This is the fourth market year in a row with production cuts, which has been partially offset by corn planting,” says the report.

“However, complications from three years of La Niña and the lack of rain prevented the advance of planting in many plots, which were left astray. Thus, with soybean and corn planting reaching the final stages, a drop in the planted area of both crops is expected. There has been no joint decrease in the area of the two crops since the 2015/16 campaign, eight years ago.”

Soy Processing

Given the scenario described above and that Paraguayan production is also on the low, the Rosario Exchange reduced its soy-processing estimate from 1 million tonnes to 36 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2017/18.

According to the study, with a scarce supply of soybeans and less processing, soy complex exports should fall by 9.5%, or 3.6 million tonnes, in MY 2022/23. In addition, the document also considers that the export values of soybeans, soy oil, and biodiesel may fall, resulting in a 20% decrease in revenue.

Caution is the watchword in this context of complex production prospects. As a result, soybean sales are significantly lower than in previous years. According to the most recent official data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries (data from 01/11/2023), domestic purchases of 2022/23 soy totaled 2.7 million tonnes in the second week of the year, 46% lower than the same period last MY and the lowest level in 21 years.

Source: Valor Econômico 

To read the full original article, please go to: https://valor.globo.com/agronegocios/noticia/2023/01/24/exportacoes-do-complexo-soja-da-argentina-devem-cair-20percent-em-202223.ghtml

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