Brazilian coffee harvest could reach record 71 million bags in 2024/25

The Brazilian 2024/25 coffee crop could reach between 69 million and 71 million 60-kilogram bags. Of this total, 47 million would be arabica coffee, with an expected supply between 23 million and 24 million bags for conilon, according to estimates from Safras & Mercado.

“With this, there is potential for a harvest similar to the record in 2020, largely due to the improvement in conilon production compared to the two periods,” said Safras consultant Gil Barabach in a statement.

“But for this potential to be confirmed, it depends on the weather. And there’s still a lot to know. The first point of doubt is the effect of high temperatures and low humidity in November on crop development. It’s worth remembering that this is the second occurrence of extreme heat. The first was in September,” Barabach noted.

According to him, the real impact of heatwaves on yields will only be known from next year’s harvest.

The consultant notes that meteorological models indicate good levels of rainfall in December in Brazil’s coffee areas. The humidity is expected to increase between January and February with the arrival of summer.

“This is good news for the 2024 harvest. It’s a very favorable climate scenario that would support the good development of crops and enhance another full harvest in 2024,” he indicated.

However, he warns that the current El Nino, even with climate evidence indicating moderate intensity, has been showing episodes typical of high intensity, reminiscent of 2016 when coffee production, especially in Espírito Santo, was severely affected by lack of rain. “So, it’s good to keep the warning signal on and monitor the weather,” he emphasizes.

For the 2023/24 cycle, the consultancy predicts a harvest of 66.65 million bags, with 43.5 million arabica beans and 23.15 million conilon.

“The good blossoms and the rains throughout the spring generate a lot of optimism around the Brazilian 2023/24 harvest,” said the consultant.

Source: Globo Rural

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