Brazil widens surplus with China but deficit with U.S. surges

Stronger trade ties between Brazil and China, alongside a drop in exports to the United States under the impact of sweeping tariffs, have pushed Brazil up in the rankings of trade balances with the world’s two largest trading economies.

From 2024 to 2025, Brazil moved from fourth to third place among countries with the largest trade deficits from China’s perspective. Over the same period, Brazil rose from seventh to fifth place in the U.S. ranking of countries generating the largest trade surpluses for the United States. In both cases, the data reflect the perspective of China and the United States, respectively. From Brazil’s standpoint, 2025 resulted in a trade surplus with China and a deficit with the U.S.

Data from DataLiner’s trade partner database, part of Datamar’s data intelligence platform, show China as the main destination for Brazil’s containerized exports, with 40,275 TEUs, up 4%, while the United States ranks second with 20,885 TEUs, but down 34%.

According to Datamar, Brazil’s main exports to China in January 2026 included frozen beef (7,780 TEUs, up 4.8%), cotton (7,043 TEUs, up 79.5%), and chemical wood pulp (6,954 TEUs, up 47%).

The chart below uses data extracted from DataLiner to compare the volume of containers exported to Brazil’s two main trading partners since January 2023:

Exports to the U.S. and China | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Looking ahead to 2026, economists expect closer trade relations with China to continue. In addition to Brazil supplying goods in high demand by the Chinese market, the duration of the war in the Middle East could further boost oil exports to Asia—especially China—if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. In 2025, Brazilian oil shipments to China reached record levels in both volume and value. Exports to the United States, meanwhile, are expected to remain influenced by the tariff policy of President Donald Trump, making bilateral negotiations increasingly important, analysts say—particularly as Washington continues to pursue higher import tariffs.

China’s trade deficit with Brazil reached $44.8 billion in 2025, trailing only Taiwan and Australia. A year earlier, Switzerland had also recorded a larger deficit with China than Brazil.

From the U.S. perspective, the trade surplus with Brazil totaled $14.4 billion in 2025. The Netherlands ranked first with $60.7 billion, followed by the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates. The tariff hike, which raised surcharges on certain imports to between 40% and 50% in 2025, came after Brazil had already expanded the U.S. trade surplus. In 2023, the bilateral relationship generated a $5.7 billion surplus for the U.S., placing Brazil ninth in that ranking.

Data from Chinese and U.S. authorities largely reflect divergent trends in Brazil’s exports to the two markets.

According to the Foreign Trade Secretariat, Brazilian exports to China reached $99.9 billion in 2025, up 5.9% from 2024. Imports from China rose even faster—by 11.4%—to $70.92 billion, setting a record and contributing to the highest-ever bilateral trade flow.

In trade with the U.S., Brazilian imports also increased, reaching $45.1 billion, second only to 2022. Exports to the U.S., however, totaled $37.7 billion, down 6.7%. A 16.7% drop in shipments in the second half of 2025, driven by tariffs, reversed a 4.4% increase recorded between January and June.

For Livio Ribeiro, a partner at BRCG and researcher at the Fundação Getulio Vargas’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV), exports to China are likely to keep growing, driven by agricultural products and oil. “There is a natural complementarity between Brazil’s export basket and Asia, especially China, which leads to a deficit for the Chinese. We supply key inputs, and they send us finished goods in increasing volumes. This dynamic is structural and unlikely to change,” he said.

Last year, nearly 80% of Brazil’s soybean exports were shipped to China, according to Secex data. Trade tensions between Beijing and Washington have favored Brazilian soybeans, boosting the country’s market share, Ribeiro added.

Aldren Vernersbach, economic analysis coordinator at the Brazilian Petroleum Institute, noted that China is already the main destination for Brazilian oil exports, accounting for 45% of the total in 2025. This share could rise to 50% this year, he said. Brazil exported an average of 870,000 barrels per day to China in 2025, supported by increased output from pre-salt fields and strong Chinese demand for “secure and readily available energy,” he said.

China is also seeking to diversify suppliers, and Brazilian oil could serve as an alternative, Vernersbach added. Currently, countries in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East account for about 50% of China’s oil imports. “With recent developments, China is in a delicate position because it depends on imported oil and will seek more stable sources of supply,” he said.

Vernersbach added that predictable auction schedules and stable regulation are key factors attracting Chinese investment. He noted that in a recent auction of blocks in Brazil’s Equatorial Margin, China’s China National Petroleum Corporation, in partnership with Chevron, secured nine exploration blocks in the Amazon River Mouth basin. “That shows how Chinese companies believe in Brazil’s energy potential,” he said, adding that the energy transition will be gradual, creating room for higher oil exports.

Brazil’s exports to China remain heavily concentrated in commodities—primarily soybeans, iron ore, and oil—which accounted for 74.2% of shipments in 2025, Cariello said. Imports from China, by contrast, are highly diversified, with growing prominence of energy transition-related products such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Among China’s top exports to Brazil in 2025 were electric station wagons and photovoltaic cells used in solar energy systems.

In trade with the U.S., tariffs remain the key factor, said André Valério of Inter. A ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court invalidating tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act reduced rates from 50% to 15%, benefiting Brazil. “But we are not very optimistic because the damage has already been done. We had nearly six months of high tariffs, which disproportionately affected sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., particularly manufacturing. It is reasonable to assume that supplier relationships were disrupted—and those are difficult to rebuild, as they are long-term, very specific contracts,” he said. “Market recovery is not expected soon,” he noted.

For products already subject to tariffs before the court ruling—such as meat, coffee, and other agricultural goods—the situation is more stable, Valério said. He expects Brazil’s trade deficit with the United States to narrow somewhat in 2026, after deteriorating significantly in 2025, but not to return to pre-tariff levels in the short term. He also noted ongoing U.S. investigations under Section 301, which could result in additional tariffs and further uncertainty.

For Abrão Neto, president of the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil, these investigations underscore the importance of continued and accelerated bilateral dialogue to ensure more predictable trade conditions.

“A more unpredictable environment has negative effects on trade and investment. That is undeniable. But unpredictability has become a defining feature of the global landscape, with more restrictive trade measures and weaker multilateral rules,” he said.

He added that the larger U.S. trade surplus with Brazil in 2025 reinforces the view that Brazil contributes positively to U.S. external trade. In addition to a goods surplus, the United States also runs a surplus in services with Brazil, which reached $21.8 billion in 2024—three times the surplus in goods trade. “Brazil is part of the solution and maintains a very positive trade relationship with the United States. It is not a source of difficulty,” he said.

Brazil’s export profile to the U.S. also differs significantly from that to China, Neto noted. “When we look at about 70% of Brazil’s exports to the United States, we are talking about a basket of 51 products. For China, it is essentially three items. Exports to the U.S. are far more diversified than to any other trading partner, including China,” he said.

Source: Valor International

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