Oil Set to Close the Year as Brazil’s Top Export Product

The Brazilian Institute of Petroleum and Gas (IBP) reported this Monday (16) that oil is on track to close the year as Brazil’s leading export product for the first time since the historical series began in 1997.

With exports totaling US$42.8 billion through November, oil has surpassed soy and iron ore. The IBP estimates that by the end of the year, the total will reach US$47 billion. Since 2016, the sector’s trade balance has maintained a net positive surplus, driven by investments in the pre-salt fields.

According to the IBP, oil production is expected to increase from the current 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 3.6 million bpd in 2025.

“This production increase is the result of the maturation of investments in the pre-salt fields and the commissioning of new FPSOs (floating production, storage, and offloading units),” highlighted the IBP president, Roberto Ardenguy.

It is estimated that over the next four years, the oil and gas sector will generate R$ 600 billion in royalties, special participations, and sales of Union-owned oil.

Brazil is currently the eighth-largest oil producer in the world and ninth in refining capacity. The sector accounts for 17% of Brazil’s industrial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and supplies 45% of the country’s domestic energy needs. In addition, Brazil ranks as the second-largest global producer of biofuels and the eighth-largest consumer market, generating 1.6 million direct and indirect jobs.

The geopolitical scenario will play a central role in 2025, influencing global energy flows. “The wars and conflicts in Ukraine, Russia, and the Middle East directly impact energy import and export flows, altering global market dynamics,” stated Isabela Costa, IBP’s technical analysis manager.

On the macroeconomic front, she emphasized the importance of monitoring the economic indicators of the United States and China, the world’s largest oil consumers.

Pelotas Basin and Equatorial Margin

The IBP highlighted two new exploration areas: the Pelotas Basin and the Equatorial Margin.

The Pelotas Basin covers approximately 40,900 km² between the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. Brazilian territory stretches from Alto de Florianópolis in the north to the Uruguayan border in the south. In partnership with Shell, Petrobras signed 26 concession contracts with the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP) to explore the region. The consortium, led by Petrobras (70%) and Shell (30%), anticipates an investment of R$ 1.5 billion.

Meanwhile, the Equatorial Margin, which includes five sedimentary basins — Pará-Maranhão, Barreirinhas, Ceará, Potiguar, and Foz do Amazonas — has the potential to add 1.1 million barrels per day to Brazil’s national production starting in 2029.

Source: Agência Brasil

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