50% Tariff “Undermines” R$ 14.4 Billion in Exports from Brazil’s “Jaguar States,” Says Study

If enforced, the 50% tariff on Brazilian products announced by U.S. President Donald Trump would “practically render unfeasible” R$ 14.4 billion in exports from Brazil’s so-called “jaguar states,” which account for 36% of the country’s shipments to the U.S. For certain industries within these states, this would mean an almost total halt in export activity.

That’s according to a study based on Secex data conducted by Futura/Apex Partners, a financial group focused on regional market development, with R$ 14 billion under management and custody.
While the figure may seem small in the context of Brazil’s total exports—US$ 337 billion in 2024, of which US$ 40.4 billion (12%) went to the United States—it represents a significant share for these eight states, which together account for just over a third of that total.

“In our analysis, we conclude that given the size of the imposed tariff—50%—it practically renders Brazilian exports to the U.S. unviable,” summarized Orlando Caliman, Chief Economist at Futura. “For example, in the case of beef—which mainly affects Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and also Goiás—the current price of a carcass, around US$ 5,500, would jump to nearly US$ 9,000. No American importer could feasibly make such a purchase.”

Inspired by the “Asian Tigers” of the late 20th century, the term “Brazilian Jaguars” has been promoted by Apex to describe eight states—Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul—that have emerged in recent years as new engines of the national economy.

Despite accounting for a significant portion (36%) of Brazilian exports to the U.S., their average dependency on the American market is lower than the national average—9% compared to 12%. Still, there are stark variations between states. Espírito Santo, for instance, sends 28.6% of all its exports to the U.S., while Mato Grosso ships only 1.5%.

This group of states is also responsible for a major share—or in some cases nearly the entirety—of certain Brazilian export products destined for the U.S. Of the total US$ 1.9 billion in Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S. in 2024, US$ 1.7 billion (89%) came from the jaguar states. Iron ore (96.8%), pulp (64.8%), and beef (73.8%) are other examples with significant export share concentration in these states.

At the state level, the potential shock could be particularly severe if the tariffs are not renegotiated. In 2024, Espírito Santo exported US$ 1.1 billion in manufactured iron and steel to the U.S., accounting for 37.1% of its export portfolio to that market. A complete halt in beef exports would wipe out 40.8% of Goiás’ export revenue, 42.1% of Mato Grosso do Sul’s, and 46.2% of Mato Grosso’s revenues from the U.S.

“The breakdown in trade with the U.S. will not only raise concerns among companies, entrepreneurs, and Brazilian society—it will also reverberate within the United States,” Caliman noted, referring to multinational corporations that rely on Brazil to produce or process inputs for use in the American market.

Source: Valor Econômico

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