Brazilian agribusiness fears U.S. retaliation for Russian fertilizer trade

Brazilian agribusiness, already under pressure in various sectors due to the 50% tariff imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump — which takes effect this Wednesday (August 6) — now fears that the threat of new retaliation may materialize in one of the most vulnerable points of its production chain: fertilizer.

According to information obtained by Folha de S. Paulo, representatives from the agricultural sector — including companies and members of the congressional agricultural caucus — have raised concerns with Brazil’s Foreign Ministry (Itamaraty) about possible sanctions the country could face starting Friday (August 8), due to ongoing trade relations with Russia, currently Brazil’s largest fertilizer supplier.

As Folha previously reported, Brazil is also at risk of sanctions over its diesel imports. More than 60% of the diesel Brazil has imported this year came from Russia, led by Vladimir Putin.

See below a historical overview of Brazilian fertilizer imports from Russia starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Fertilizer Imports from Russia – Jan 2022 to May 2025 – TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

The Agricultural Parliamentary Front has not commented on the matter. However, the overall atmosphere is one of apprehension. As a country heavily dependent on imported agricultural inputs, Brazil’s farming sector hopes that the international pressure Trump is placing on Russia does not spill over into bilateral transactions.

On July 14, 2025, Trump stated that if Russia does not reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, the United States will impose “100% secondary tariffs” on countries that continue to purchase Russian exports.

These tariffs would be part of a diplomatic ultimatum and would involve indirect penalties on buyers of Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other goods — including fertilizers. The policy was confirmed by U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs Scott Bessent and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

On Tuesday, Trump said he would decide on these sanctions involving oil purchases after a meeting with Russian officials scheduled for Wednesday (August 6).

At a press conference, Trump did not confirm the 100% rate. “I never said a percentage, but it will probably be something close to that,” the U.S. president stated.

The tariff on Brazil would not be directly applied to fertilizers imported by the country but rather to other Brazilian exports to the U.S. as a form of indirect retaliation or economic pressure.

Ricardo Alban, president of Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry (CNI), stated that the Brazilian government must be vigilant to the risk of a U.S. backlash involving product bans. This, he said, is among the risks currently on the radar of Brazilian industry.

“The U.S. position given to Russia was that if it didn’t resolve the war issue, they would retaliate against anyone buying Russian goods. And we buy oil and fertilizers, which are extremely sensitive for agribusiness,” he said.

The concern of Brazilian producers is understandable given the country’s deep dependence on Russian fertilizers. Brazil accounts for around 8% of global fertilizer consumption, making it the fourth-largest consumer after China, India, and the United States. Soybeans, corn, and sugarcane account for more than 73% of domestic fertilizer use.

According to Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa), over 90% of fertilizers used in Brazil are imported, making the sector vulnerable to international market fluctuations and directly impacting rural producers. Russia is the top supplier, providing 30% of Brazil’s fertilizer imports, ahead of China, Canada, and the U.S.

A group of Brazilian senators recently returned from Washington, where they attempted to sway the U.S. government on the new tariff measures. They reportedly came away with the impression that U.S. officials are particularly concerned about the volume of fuel Brazil buys from Russia — currently the country’s second-largest import after fertilizers.

Senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS), who participated in the talks, was contacted for comment but had not responded by the time of publication.

Brazil’s structural dependence on Russian fertilizers continues to grow. Data from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (Mdic) indicate that 2025 is on track to set a new record for fertilizer imports from Russia.

In the first half of the year alone, Brazil purchased 5.71 million tonnes of fertilizer from Russia at a cost of US$1.98 billion. The full-year total is expected to exceed 12 million tonnes, matching or surpassing the previous record of 12.5 million tonnes in 2024.

This dependence has surged over the last decade. In 2015, Brazil imported 3.7 million tonnes from Russia. By 2017, the number had reached 5.6 million. In 2019, before the pandemic, imports had already surpassed 7 million tonnes.

The first major jump came in 2021, when imports hit 9.6 million tonnes, driven by the post-COVID recovery. In 2022, despite a drop to 8.1 million tonnes, the war in Ukraine and fears of supply disruptions prompted Brazil to accelerate its purchases. Imports remained high in 2023 at 9.3 million tonnes, and the physical volume has only continued to rise since then.

Source: Valor Econômico

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