Brazil hits export record to U.S. despite new tariff pressures

The foreign trade outlook with the United States remains highly uncertain following President Donald Trump’s official implementation of a 50% surcharge last week on a long list of Brazilian products. However, data from Amcham, the American Chamber of Commerce, revealed that in the period leading up to the “tariff hike,” Brazilian exports to the U.S. between January and July rose 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling US$23.7 billion (R$128.27 billion at the current exchange rate)—the highest figure ever recorded for the period.

According to a special edition of the Brazil-U.S. Trade Monitor, produced by Amcham, imports also increased, with a 12.6% rise reaching US$26.0 billion. This widened the U.S. trade surplus with Brazil to US$2.3 billion in the year-to-date, a sharp 607.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

The result reinforces the longstanding U.S. trade advantage with Brazil, which has posted a trade deficit with the U.S. for the past 15 years. Even so, Brazilian goods were hit with the steepest tariff rate—50%—while other countries with trade surpluses with Washington were subjected to rates ranging between 10% and 30%. To justify the tariffs on Brazilian products, the Trump administration also cited another unfounded reason: the claim that Brazil is under a “judicial dictatorship” and that the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro—defendant in the coup plot case—amounts to a “witch hunt.”

Although nearly 700 Brazilian products were spared from the 50% tariff, key exports such as sugar and coffee were left exposed. So far, there is no sign of negotiations between the Trump and Lula administrations. Lula recently stated that he would not “humiliate” himself to open a channel of dialogue with the U.S. president. Brazilian states are exploring ways to develop programs that protect national industries. For now, the greatest hope lies in potential talks between the American and Brazilian private sectors, which may act as intermediaries in any future negotiations.

“Brazilian exports to the U.S. remain resilient and on a growth trajectory through July. Our commitment is to continue working in coordination with both governments to preserve this trade, which drives jobs and opportunities in both countries—especially in light of the additional challenges the tariff increases will bring moving forward,” said Abrão Neto, president of Amcham Brazil.

Advance shipments
In July—when the U.S. was already applying a 10% “base” surcharge and had announced the increase to 50% starting in August—Brazilian exports reached US$3.7 billion (over R$20 billion), a 3.8% year-over-year increase and also a record for the month.

The volume of goods shipped rose by 7.3%, reflecting, according to Amcham, a possible strategy of accelerating sales to avoid the impact of the new tariffs. On the U.S. side, imports from Brazil rose at an even faster pace. The increase was 18.2% for the month, reaching US$4.3 billion (R$23.27 billion)—the second-highest monthly value in a decade.

Among the ten main export products, six recorded increases in July, with highlights including:

• Aircraft: +159.0%
• Pig iron: +62.5%
• Lime and cement: +46.3%
• Petroleum: +39.9%
• Fruit juice: +32.2%

For the year to date, the biggest gains came from beef (+118.1%), fruit juice (+61.7%), coffee (+34.6%), and aircraft (+31.7%).

Some sectors, however, have already felt the effects of the tariffs and international competition. The main declines include:

• Pulp: –14.8% (due to pressure from Canadian products)
• Petroleum oils: –18.0%
• Engineering equipment: –20.8%
• Semi-finished iron or steel: –8.0% (with a 64% drop in July alone)
• Sugar: –49.6% in value and –51.7% in volume, already under the 50% tariff since August 6

While the U.S. trade deficit in global goods rose 27.8% in the first half of the year, Brazil remains one of the few countries with which Washington maintains a trade surplus—the fifth-largest on the list, having grown 57.9% from 2024 to 2025. When comparing only the month of June, however, the U.S. deficit decreased by 8.3%, already signaling a potential effect of the newly applied reciprocal tariffs.

Source: Veja

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