U.S. tariffs on India raise global fertilizer supply concerns

The new import tariff imposed by the United States on products from India could impact the global fertilizer market by heightening uncertainty over possible sanctions against countries that maintain trade relations with Russia. The measure, announced by the White House on August 6, will take effect on the 27th and is expected to reduce the competitiveness of Indian goods in the U.S. market.

According to a report by StoneX, the decision was prompted by India’s continued imports of Russian oil, despite international sanctions against Moscow due to the war in Ukraine. The move is being interpreted as a signal that the U.S. is closely monitoring trade flows that, directly or indirectly, benefit the Russian economy.

Although the tariff specifically targets India, the concern within the industry is that such actions could eventually extend to other countries with strong commercial ties to Russia—such as Brazil, a major importer of Russian fertilizers.

In 2024, for example, 53% of the monoammonium phosphate (MAP) imported by Brazil came from Russia, as did 39% of its potassium chloride and significant volumes of urea.

According to market intelligence analyst Tomás Pernías, “these figures highlight Brazil’s heavy dependence on Russian goods in the nitrogen, phosphate, and potash segments, which makes it difficult to replace them with other suppliers capable of meeting that level of demand.”

So far, there are no indications that buyers of these products are at risk of new sanctions; however, the escalation of trade measures and the lack of progress in the war are raising concerns about potential future impacts on global fertilizer flows.

Even so, the current context raises the possibility of a shift in U.S. policy toward Russian agricultural products. Russia is one of the world’s top exporters of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers. Any further restrictions could squeeze global supply and drive up prices, both in the U.S. and in other regions, including Brazil.

According to Pernías, the U.S. itself also relies on Russia for part of its fertilizer supply. Between July 2024 and June 2025, an estimated 35% of the urea imported by the U.S. came from Russia. In the case of potassium chloride, Russia accounted for approximately 10%.

If Washington decides to impose tariffs on these fertilizers, the immediate effect would be a rise in domestic prices, forcing the U.S. to seek alternative suppliers. The added cost could ripple through agricultural production chains, affecting the global competitiveness of U.S. commodities.

For now, the decision concerning India is an isolated case, but it raises a warning flag over potential changes in international trade rules for fertilizers, especially in a scenario of prolonged war in Eastern Europe and growing geopolitical tensions among major economic powers.

Source: Globo Rural

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