Brazil’s wheat imports expected to rise, reaching 7 million tonnes

The harvest of Brazil’s wheat crop is still underway, but with reduced national production and strong domestic demand, millers and analysts anticipate an increase in imports.

Last year, purchases from abroad totaled 6.64 million tonnes, according to Agrostat, the Ministry of Agriculture’s information system. Now, expectations are that imports could reach 7 million tonnes — a level not seen since 2013, according to Agrostat data.

Nelson Montagna, president of the Wheat Sector Chamber of São Paulo State and supply manager at Moinho Anaconda, is among those projecting imports of 7 million tonnes.

Douglas Araújo, wheat trader at CJ International Brazil, also expects foreign purchases to hit 7 million tonnes, adding that Argentina should increase its sales to the Brazilian market. The neighboring country is expected to harvest a strong crop, estimated at around 20 million tonnes, with competitively priced wheat. As a result, other origins are unlikely to play a significant role in Brazil’s imports.

Luiz Carlos Pacheco, an analyst at TF Agroeconomic Consulting, projects imports of 6.7 million tonnes — slightly above the 2024 level. He cites the reduction in Brazil’s planted area as one of the main drivers of rising imports.

The latest data from Conab (National Supply Company), released in September, shows that Brazil’s wheat planting area fell 19.9% in 2025, while production is expected to decline 4.5%, to 7.536 million tonnes.

“Even though production isn’t dropping that sharply yet, the planted area is shrinking considerably, and expectations are for further reductions next year. And if productivity isn’t particularly high, we’ll face a complicated scenario with risks to supply,” said Paloma Venturelli, president of Moinho Globo, Paraná.

According to her, the reduction is mainly due to falling prices, which discouraged farmers. Montagna of Anaconda added that expectations of a record global crop are also pushing domestic prices lower.

Pacheco of TF Consulting notes that the ongoing Brazilian harvest is also contributing to weaker domestic prices.

A Cepea/Esalq survey shows that bread-making or higher-quality wheat in Paraná fell 8.8% in September, to R$1,284.38 per tonne. In Rio Grande do Sul, soft wheat dropped 4.4% in the month, to R$1,227.33 per tonne.

Mills surveyed by Valor reported that the current harvest in Brazil is favorable, with the quality of this year’s wheat crop considered exceptional.

Source: Globo Rural

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