Chicken exports: mid-October shipments suggest repeat of September volumes

According to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex/MDIC), in the first eight working days of October, Brazil exported 183,289 tonnes of fresh chicken meat, averaging 22,911 tonnes per day — increases of 9.6% and 16% compared to the previous month and the same month in 2024, respectively.

If this daily average is maintained throughout the 23 working days of the month, total shipments could surpass 525,000 tonnes. However, as is usually the case, initial monthly figures tend to be diluted as the period progresses, since they often include carryover shipments not recorded in the previous month.

Even if the total accumulated so far were spread over nine business days, the daily average would still remain above 20,000 tonnes. This would point to a monthly total of around 460,000 tonnes — practically the same as the September export total (459,823 tonnes of fresh chicken meat) — representing an annual increase of roughly 6%.

Ideally, maintaining a daily average slightly above 21,000 tonnes would allow exports to reach at least 485,000 tonnes for the month. In that case, the 10-month cumulative total would reach 4.1 million tonnes, slightly exceeding exports in the same period last year (about 4.097 million tonnes of fresh chicken meat, according to updated Secex/MDIC data).

It must be acknowledged, however, that achieving this result will not be easy. Traditionally, shipments in the final quarter of the year decline compared to the two preceding quarters, remaining higher only than those in the first quarter. For instance, over 2007-2024 (18 years), fourth-quarter exports did not exceed 25% of the annual total, compared with 25.5% in the second quarter and more than 26% in the third quarter (first-quarter shipments accounted for less than 23.5%).

Nevertheless, 2025 could be an exception, as importers are only now beginning to replenish their inventories, and Brazil has seen the reopening of its main export market — China. If that trend holds, October could mark the strongest monthly performance in the history of Brazil’s chicken meat exports.

Source: Avisite

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