Brazilian specialty coffee exports to the U.S. drop 67% after Trump’s tariff increase

The steep tariff imposed by United States President Donald Trump on Brazilian products has caused a 67% drop in Brazil’s exports of specialty coffee to the U.S. market, according to data from the Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA).

The 50% surcharge on Brazilian shipments was announced in July and took effect the following month. Since then, the total export volume to the United States has dropped sharply — from a monthly average of 150,000 bags to around 50,000.

The United States, which traditionally buys about 2 million of the 10 million bags of premium coffees exported annually by Brazil, has seen a sharp decline in imports. In August, the country’s total coffee purchases fell 16.5%, and in September the drop reached 20.3%.

Brazilian specialty coffees, considered the most valuable in the market, can exceed R$3,000 per 60-kg bag, according to producers who participated in the International Coffee Week (SIC), recently held in Belo Horizonte.

“The impact was dramatic, because we are essentially talking about a 67% reduction in shipments of higher value-added coffees that are heavily affected by the tariff. And what is the expectation of importers? They are receiving signals that the tariff must be resolved. So what happens? They delay shipments and start consuming their inventories,” said Vinícius Estrela, BSCA executive director.

Check below for a historical overview of Brazilian green coffee exports to the United States starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Green Coffee Exports to the United States | Jan 2022 to Sep 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (Clique aqui para solicitar uma demo)

Risk of market loss and international competition

Estrela considers the moment “very delicate,” since coffee is a product with a short commercialization window, which makes negotiations more sensitive. He warns that, if the impasse persists, Brazil may lose market share in the United States and open space for competitors such as Colombia, Panama, Ethiopia, Kenya and Indonesia.

“If the agreement is delayed and does not happen this year, the coffee sector may lose an important portion of the American market and give consumers the chance to try and eventually adapt to other coffees. It took Brazil and BSCA more than 30 years to prove that Brazil was not just a producer of commodity coffee,” the executive said.

Strategies to offset the tariff hike

Faced with losses, Brazilian companies are trying to mitigate the impact through direct agreements with American buyers. Três Corações, the sector’s leading company, adjusted prices and margins to maintain exports.

“We export a little coffee to the U.S. East Coast. We lowered our price, the distributor there lowered their margin a bit, and the final price increased slightly. It was a three-way equation, and we continued exporting […] We rearranged everything, but we didn’t interrupt business,” said Pedro Lima, the company’s president.

The executive director of the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic), Celírio Inácio da Silva, argues that the tariff review should be handled separately from trade discussions involving other Brazilian products.

“It has to be discussed separately, for several reasons. First, because in the coffee sector, there is no issue on either side — not from the United States or Brazil. Second, if Brazil starts with any product, it at least shows goodwill. And the United States also shows goodwill. They say: okay, let’s start negotiating,” he said.

Source: Diário do Centrro do Mundo

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