U.S. tariff cut fails to calm Brazilian coffee exporters as 40% surcharge remains

The new executive order, signed on November 14 by United States President Donald Trump, was expected to bring relief to international agricultural trade, but it was met with frustration by Brazilian coffee exporters. Despite the removal of the basic 10% tariff imposed on various products, including coffee, the maintenance of the additional 40% surcharge under Article 301 continues to strongly penalize Brazil — especially specialty-coffee producers.

In an official statement, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) highlighted the need for a detailed analysis of the new measure, questioning whether it applies only to the 10% tariff, to the additional 40% surcharge, or to both. According to the entity’s president, Márcio Ferreira, and its CEO, Marcos Matos, the institution is in contact with its American counterparts to understand the real impact of the decree and will speak again after obtaining the necessary clarifications.

Brazilian coffee exporters report a 55% drop in specialty-coffee exports
The Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA) was more emphatic in its position. For the organization, the decision to maintain the 40% surcharge amplifies commercial distortions between the two countries and directly affects Brazil’s performance in the main importing market for specialty coffee. From August to October, the period when the “super tariff” was in effect, Brazilian specialty-coffee exports to the U.S. dropped 55%, from 412 thousand 60-kg bags to 190 thousand 60-kg bags.

“The maintenance of this tariff makes it increasingly difficult or even irreversible to regain space in American blends. Every day that passes brings enormous losses,” said Marcos Matos of Cecafé.

Below is a historical record of Brazilian green coffee exports to the United States, starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Green-Coffee Exports to the United States | Jan 2022 to Sep 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Risk of substitution in blends and urgency in negotiations
There is a concrete fear that competing countries such as Colombia, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Costa Rica and Indonesia will take Brazil’s place in coffee blends sold to U.S. consumers. Because consumer taste adapts to the flavors available, the loss of market share could become permanent.

In view of this, BSCA reinforced the urgency of accelerating diplomatic negotiations between the Brazilian and U.S. governments so that trade flows return to normal in the coming weeks.

Analysis from CNI and relief for orange juice
According to a preliminary survey by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), around 80 agricultural products exported by Brazil — responsible for US$ 4.6 billion in 2024 — benefited from the removal of the global 10% tariff. However, only four of them, including Brazil nuts and three types of orange juice, were fully exempt from tariffs. The rest, including coffee and beef, remain subject to the extra 40% surcharge.

For the citrus-juice sector, there was relief: the tariff codes for Brazilian orange juice, both concentrated (FCOJ) and not-from-concentrate (NFC), were included in the list exempt from the reciprocal 10% surcharge. The traditional tariff of US$ 415 per tonne, however, remains in effect.

Impact also on beef
The effect of the additional tariffs has not been limited to coffee. According to Abrafrigo, the measures imposed in August generated losses of US$ 700 million for the beef sector. In the quarter in which the surcharge was in effect, exports to the U.S. fell 36.4%, with an even greater decline in October. Abiec, however, assesses that despite the impact, demand for industrial beef for hamburgers should maintain export flows, since Brazil operates in a niche with little competition.

The expectation of the coffee sector is that the governments will move quickly in negotiations to remove all tariffs imposed on Brazilian coffee. According to Cecafé and BSCA, delays in solving the issue could cost the country strategic positions in one of the most important consumer markets in the world.

Source: Diário do Acre

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