Competition for soy supplies expected between exporters and processors in second half

An analysis by ED&F Man Capital Markets identified that Brazilian soybeans should remain attractive for export in the second half, prolonging competition between exporters and processors for raw material during the last six months of the year, when the industry normally has good margins for soy bran.  This attractiveness for exports is expected to challenge the balance of soy supply and demand in Brazil this year, as the exchange rate at historic highs makes Brazilian products very competitive.

In April, the country exported a record monthly volume of soybeans of above 16 million tons, according to government data.  At the same time, soybean crushing margins in Brazil since mid-March are above the historical average for the period, with good demand from the domestic meat industry.  The following chart shows Brazilian soy exports to China and the rest of the world since 2015:

Chart source: DataLiner

Source of report: Reuters

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