Argentina heads for record wheat harvest, but quality issues worry Brazilian millers

Argentina is expected to harvest the largest wheat crop in its history in 2025/26. Projections range from 25.5 million tonnes, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, to 27.7 million tonnes, according to the Rosario Board of Trade. Despite the record volume, Brazilian millers have expressed concern about the quality of the wheat available so far, especially regarding gluten and protein levels, which are considered decisive for breadmaking and pasta production.

Brazil is expected to import 6.7 million tonnes next season, according to data from the National Supply Company (Conab), and Argentina remains the leading supplier of wheat to the Brazilian market.

According to the superintendent of the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo), Eduardo Assêncio, the first quality indicators point to more significant challenges for the pasta industry than for breadmaking.

“It is at a level considered borderline,” he said during an Association livestream, noting that if specific indicators are confirmed, the wheat may fall below the ideal standard and require sourcing improver wheats — something Argentina is capable of producing, but which generally does not reach export markets.

In the regions already harvested, protein levels range from 10% to 14%, with an average of 11.1%, the lowest in the past ten years. Gluten follows the same trend. According to Assêncio, it is still too early to assess the situation in the southern part of the country, where harvesting is delayed. Still, the wheat harvested so far shows “greater tenacity and lower elasticity” compared to the previous crop, which had higher quality.

Assêncio emphasized that Brazilian mills are closely monitoring the results, as a further decline in gluten levels could require importing improver wheats from other origins. Even so, he noted that quality may improve as harvesting progresses southward.

Crop conditions
Heavy rainfall was key to this year’s exceptional productivity in Argentina’s wheat crop, said Daniela Venturino, wheat crop analyst at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

In the northern region, the harvest has already been completed, with good quality and productivity of 2.78 tonnes per hectare, 91% above the average of the past five seasons. In the central region, including the province of Buenos Aires, 88% of the area has been harvested, with productivity 51% above average, reaching 4.4 tonnes per hectare, and a normal incidence of fungal diseases.

Unlike previous years, moisture favoured cereal development in much of the country. However, southern Argentina suffered from excessive rainfall, leaving 900,000 hectares under water. In total, 4.3 million hectares were affected by flooding and operational difficulties, causing delays in sowing, unfertilized areas, logistical problems, and losses in other crops, such as corn. According to the analyst, the situation prevented an even larger expansion of the wheat area.

In the southern region, only 7% of the area has been harvested, while the remaining fields are still filling with grain. Production, however, is expected to reach 4.27 tonnes per hectare, 22% above the average of the past five years. Even so, challenges remain in disease control and slight nutrient leaching due to excessive moisture.

The total wheat area planted was 6.7 million hectares, 6.3% above last season and 6.7% above the five-year average. Of this total, harvesting has reached 60.2% of the area.

Venturino said the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange does not rule out an even higher final output, potentially reaching 27.7 million tonnes, as projected by the Rosario Board of Trade. “It is a volume we have never seen in our country,” she said. Caution, however, remains: “We are waiting for the faster harvest pace in the south, because there is variability between estimated yields.”

Source: Globo Rural

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