Trade surplus forecast at $67bn in 2026

After reaching an extraordinary $98.9 billion in 2023, Brazil’s export and import levels are returning to a more “normal” range, economists say, but should still produce a sizable surplus in 2026, providing an important contribution to the country’s external accounts. In 2024, the surplus totaled $74.2 billion. The official trade balance result for 2025 will be released by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Mdic) on Tuesday, January 6.

The outlook for the 2026 trade balance assumes commodity prices that remain relatively contained on the export side and an import level that is still relatively high, consistent with an economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. On the radar are expectations surrounding tariff negotiations between Brazil and the United States, the signing of the European Union–Mercosur trade agreement, and the global trend toward increased use of trade-protection measures.

Estimates gathered by Valor for Brazil’s 2026 trade surplus range from $43.5 billion to $85 billion. Among the more optimistic projections is that of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), which forecasts a surplus of $77.4 billion in 2026, compared with an estimated $63.8 billion in 2025. The expected increase in the surplus does not stem from a major rise in shipments, explains AEB president José Augusto de Castro.

Under the AEB’s projection, export revenue is expected to grow 1.5% from 2025 to 2026. The main concern, Castro says, is commodity prices. “We expect export volumes of oil to grow because production is increasing. But there is concern about prices, both for oil and soybeans. There is nothing at the moment to support an estimate of strong price growth,” he says.

At the same time, he adds, the soybean harvest in 2026 should still be significant, but below the record output of 2025. Soybean prices, he estimates, are likely to move sideways in 2026.

Oil and soybeans, along with iron ore, are the most important products in Brazil’s export basket. Together, the three currently account for 34% of total export revenue.

The expected moderate price behavior, Castro says, is consistent with forecasts of a slowdown in global trade in 2026. He notes that a sharp loss of momentum had initially been expected for 2025 but did not materialize, largely because tariff disputes led to front-loading of shipments and a more aggressive search by countries for market diversification.

In its latest update released in October, the World Trade Organization (WTO) revised its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, well above the 0.9% increase projected in August and the 0.2% forecast in April. For 2026, however, the current estimate is for growth to slow to 0.5%. In April and August, projections for 2026 had been 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively.

André Valério, an economist at Banco Inter, notes that soybean exports in the final months of 2025 were heavily driven by China, at levels unusual for that time of year. Those shipments, he says, resulted from the “confusion” created by the trade war between China and the United States. “China bought much more soybeans from Brazil than it normally does in that period. The last time this happened, Brazil gained the Chinese market. I believe this will happen again, but we should not repeat the 2025 record, because China has committed to resuming purchases from the United States, which should also affect Brazilian exports.”

“Moreover, we do not see Chinese demand recovering in a significant enough way to generate a new commodity upswing,” Valério says. Without stronger demand from China, commodity prices are unlikely to have a major impact.

Ariane Benedito, chief economist at PicPay, says the outlook for 2026 is one of “mixed prices.” “We do not really know where they are headed, and volumes will be the main driver of dynamics.” Some prices may decline slightly, but there are no “alarming points” in the outlook for Brazil’s trade balance, she says.

There is a possibility that negotiations with the U.S. could improve exports to the its market, which were heavily affected in 2025 by the tariff policy of the Trump administration. That could bring additional export gains favorable to the trade balance in 2026 and 2027, she notes. Benedito projects a path of rising trade surpluses in the coming years. For 2025, she estimates a surplus of $65 billion. For 2026 and 2027, her forecasts are surpluses of $68.4 billion and $76.4 billion, respectively.

On the positive side, there are some expected changes that are more structural than cyclical and therefore unlikely to have a clear immediate effect in 2026, Valério observes. Among them is the EU–Mercosur trade agreement, which is now expected to be signed in January. The agreement is positive, he says, but its effects should be spread out over time.

On the import side, AEB’s Castro expects a 2.7% decline in 2026 compared with what is projected for 2025. Imports, he notes, have been rising over the past three years, driven not only by prices but also by volumes. “There comes a time when the momentum runs out,” he says.

For Valério of Inter, slower domestic economic activity in 2026 could help boost the trade surplus by reducing imports. “But we see imports that are welcome, such as external purchases of inputs, equipment and intermediate goods. The expectation is that this will continue.”

Especially in an environment of declining interest rates over the course of 2026, Valério says, inflows of foreign direct investment are expected to remain very strong. “So the level of imports should also stay relatively high. Overall, we foresee the 2026 trade balance as a continuation of the scenario seen throughout 2025.” Inter projects a trade surplus of $63 billion in 2025, followed by $65 billion in 2026.