Meatpackers seek alternatives to China beef quota

Brazilian meatpackers are weighing options to deal with the new quota for beef imports set by China, at 1.1 million tonnes, and a 55% tariff on shipments that exceed that volume. One proposal under discussion is to distribute the quota among exporters, a move that could face resistance from some companies.

Allocating volumes would be an attempt to avoid a rush by export-oriented slaughterhouses to buy cattle in order to fill the quota. If that happens, at a time when pasture-fed cattle supply is seasonally higher, cattle prices could come under pressure, as ranchers would be more inclined to sell, said Alcides Torres, director at consultancy Scot Consultoria.

“If companies fail to reach a consensus, prices will fall because everyone will rush to deliver beef within the quota,” Torres said. “The idea is to distribute the quota among exporting meatpackers, based on export performance in 2025 or over recent years,” he added.

See below a historical overview of Brazilian beef exports to China starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Beef Exports to China | Jan 2022 to Nov 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

An industry source noted, however, that reaching such an agreement would not be simple, given recent disagreements among some companies on other issues.

One example cited is the relationship between MBRF — the company formed by the merger of Marfrig and BRF — and Minerva, which clashed in 2025 when Minerva opposed the deal.

“Minerva would be expanding shipments to China following the acquisition of Marfrig plants, but it does not yet have a long track record, so setting criteria like that and reaching a consensus on quota allocation seems challenging with these players,” the source told Valor. When contacted, MBRF and Minerva declined to comment.

The industry is also pressing the federal government to ensure that Brazilian beef cargoes already at Chinese ports or in transit to China are not counted toward the quota, which officially came into force on January 1. These volumes amount to around 350,000 tonnes.

In an article, Paulo Bellicanta, president of the Mato Grosso meatpackers’ association Sindifrigo MT, said that if those volumes are included, just over 750,000 tonnes would remain available for production destined for the Chinese market throughout 2026.

“Spread over 12 months, that translates into roughly 62,500 tonnes per month, a level completely disconnected from the sector’s current reality,” he estimated. By comparison, Brazil has been exporting more than 160,000 tonnes per month to China in recent months. “The only viable path is institutional dialogue with the Chinese authorities, in search of a balanced understanding built government to government,” Bellicanta argued.

A third request from the meatpacking industry would be the possibility for Brazil to absorb unused volumes from other supplier countries that fail to fill their quotas for China.

In addition to Brazil, countries such as Argentina, Uruguay, Australia and the United States have also been granted beef quotas by China.

Source: Globo Rural

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