US beef imports seen rising up to 3% in 2026 on tight cattle supply

US beef imports are projected to increase by up to 3% in 2026, according to a report released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), reflecting continued tight domestic cattle supplies.

The USDA said beef imports rose 16% last year to approximately 2.45 million metric tons, as the U.S. cattle herd fell to its lowest level in roughly 75 years. The shrinking supply of slaughter-ready animals has forced processors to rely more heavily on foreign beef to meet domestic demand.

The supply squeeze has already affected U.S. meatpackers, with JBS, Tyson Foods and Cargill announcing plant closures earlier this year.

Brazil stands to benefit from the sustained U.S. demand. Consultancy Agrifatto estimates that the U.S. cattle shortage could persist through 2027, supporting strong American import demand for Brazilian beef.

Data from Brazil’s Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) show that as of January 5, 2026, the United States had already imported about 47,000 metric tons under its tariff-rate quota system — equivalent to 73% of the annual duty-free volume. In 2025, the 65,000-ton quota was fully utilized by January 17, underscoring expectations of continued robust buying.

According to Datamar, Brazil recorded a 33% surge in beef shipments to the United States over the past year. Prior to the imposition of additional tariffs, the U.S. market ranked as the second-largest destination for Brazilian beef exports.

The following chart uses DataLiner data to detail the month-by-month performance of Brazilian beef shipments to the U.S. since January 2022:

Beef Exports to the U.S. | Jan 2022 – Dec 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The department also noted that tariff-rate quota availability has been expanded for certain strategic trade partners, potentially improving market access for some suppliers. Argentina is expected to be among the primary beneficiaries.

In February, President Donald Trump signed an executive order expanding beef imports from Argentina, with the administration aiming to ease domestic meat prices by boosting supply.

Analysts say the prospect of stronger U.S. demand is already influencing cattle futures markets. Geraldo Isoldi of Terra Investimentos said expectations of higher American purchases — with Brazil positioned as a key supplier — have supported gains in live cattle contracts.

Import demand is likely to remain elevated, he added, as the U.S. cattle herd continues to decline year after year. Meanwhile, Mexico is facing challenges controlling livestock disease outbreaks, which could further constrain regional supply.

Source: CNN Brasil

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