Export-led sector to boost GDP again in 2026

Amid the impact of high interest rates on domestic demand, export-oriented sectors stood out in the final quarter of 2025, making a significant positive contribution to GDP growth in the period. Economists interviewed by Valor expect that support to continue in 2026. While there is no consensus on the size of this year’s harvest, grains are expected to support exports, along with iron ore and oil, which could be affected by the new conflict in the Middle East.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), GDP expanded 2.3% in 2025, with a positive contribution of 0.3 percentage point (p.p.) from the external sector and 2 p.p. from domestic demand. Exports rose 6.2% in the year. Imports also increased, though at a slower pace of 4.5%.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, exports grew 3.7% while imports fell 1.8% from the previous three months, IBGE data show. The decline in imports as a GDP component boosts the net contribution of the external sector. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP rose 0.1%. In that measure, the net contribution of the external sector was 1 p.p., according to calculations by Rodolfo Margato, an economist at XP.

By the end of 2025, domestic demand had clearly weakened, in contrast to accelerating net exports, said Sergio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados. “The contrast between 2024 and 2025 has been more or less this, with a recovery in net exports and a slowdown in domestic demand. It was a year in which commodities played an important role and net exports showed strength.”

However, he said both forces should come in “very low” in 2026. Of the 1.8% GDP growth forecast by Vale for 2026, 1.1 p.p. is expected to come from net exports and 0.8 p.p. from domestic demand. “We will have a low-growth scenario in the end, basically because domestic demand is not managing to drive growth. In Brazil’s GDP history, the years with stronger growth were those with more accelerated domestic demand.”

IBGE data show that in 2024, when GDP grew 3.4%, domestic demand rose 5.4 p.p., while the external sector made a negative contribution of 2 p.p. In 2021, GDP expanded 4.8%, with support of 6.3 p.p. from domestic demand and a negative contribution of 1.5 p.p. from the external sector. In 2010, when GDP advanced 7.5%, domestic demand contributed 10 p.p., while the external sector subtracted 2.5 p.p.

Livio Ribeiro, a partner at BRCG and researcher at FGV Ibre, estimates GDP growth will slow to 1.7% in 2026, under a scenario of monetary easing, active fiscal policy, the political-electoral cycle and expansion of disposable income. In this context, the external sector is expected to maintain a positive contribution. For 2026, Ribeiro projects export growth of 2.1% and zero growth in imports, resulting in a 0.5 p.p. contribution from the external sector to demand-side growth.

Last year, the external sector stood out in the fourth quarter, reflecting the easing of concerns about the negative impact of tariff hikes imposed by the United States, said Matheus Pizzani, an economist at PicPay. In his view, 2026 should mark a return to a pattern in which most of the dynamic impulse comes from the external sector, supported by an “excellent harvest of key agricultural commodities” and, at the margin, by improved prices for mineral and energy commodities, especially oil, which, all else equal, could see prices lifted by recent events in the Middle East.

Ariane Benedito, chief economist at PicPay, said the bank does not expect a record grain harvest in 2026, unlike part of the market. For now, her baseline scenario is for an “excellent, above-potential” harvest, but smaller than in 2025. “The main export protagonists will be soybeans, corn, cattle, oil and gas.” She noted that export volumes in 2026 should remain significant. “In value terms, however, there is the volume versus price issue. We are being hurt by a structurally stronger real.”

Benedito said the outbreak of the crisis in the Middle East should keep oil prices “hovering” between $82 and $85 per barrel. Prices between $95 and $105 per barrel would occur only in the event of an abrupt escalation of the conflict or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which Persian Gulf oil flows—which is not part of the baseline scenario, she said.

Ribeiro of BRCG said the impact of the conflict on Brazilian exports must be viewed with caution. “There are multiple channels, without even getting into the exchange-rate discussion. The trade balance for oil and derivatives is in surplus, but if we add the chemicals account, the balance is in deficit. So it depends very much on how all these vectors move together; we cannot look only at the oil account. We must consider the chemical products we import, such as fertilizers and crop protection products.”

By Marta Watanabe for Valor International

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