Cattle prices at all-time high as exporters rush to fill China quota

The rapid filling of the Brazilian beef export quota to China, at a time of restricted supply of animals for slaughter, has caused the price of fat cattle to reach a historic nominal record in Brazil. On Wednesday (9), the Cepea/Esalq fat cattle index, a benchmark for the market, reached R$365 per arroba (a metric unit equal to 15 kilos), a 2.53% increase in the month. In 12 months, the rise is 12.5%.

Demand for cattle is high in the country because meatpackers are rushing to increase exports to China, Brazil’s main customer, while there is still room in the reduced tariff quota. As a result, the industry expects the quota to be fully filled by May.

Datamar data shows that Brazil exported 7,780 TEUs of beef to China in January 2026, marking a 4.8% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The following chart, compiled using intelligence from the DataLiner platform, details the monthly outbound shipments of Brazilian beef to the Chinese market:

Beef Exports to China | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Since the beginning of the year, China has imposed safeguards on beef imports from different suppliers and established a quota of 1.1 million tonnes imported from Brazil with a 12% tariff. For extra quota exports, the rate is 55%.

Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (ABIEC), said on Wednesday that Brazil should fill its entire beef export quota to China by the first week of May. During a cattle farming meeting held by Scot Consultoria in Ribeirão Preto, Perosa said there was an acceleration of shipments in March after the Lula administration decided not to create a control system to regulate exports. As a result, he said, the volume exported in the first three months has already exceeded 40% of the 1.1 million tonne quota.

He noted, however, that Chinese authorities have not yet consolidated the figures for last month.

Experts consulted by Valor believe that prices tend to remain high until the Chinese quota is filled. “There may be price volatility [with the filling of the quota],” said Thiago Bernardino, a researcher at the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA).

He noted, however, that beef supply is low in countries important to the global market, such as the United States, where the cattle herd is the smallest in decades. This would prevent the price per arroba of beef from falling much worldwide.

In Brazil, cattle supply also remains tight for now, forcing a rise in prices, he said.

For Alcides Torres, director of Scot Consultoria, the Chinese quota was the main factor in changing the market dynamics, as it accelerated purchases of cattle for slaughter and subsequent export of meat. As a result, total shipments reached a historical high for the month of March this year.

Data from Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) released on Tuesday (7) show that shipments of Brazilian fresh beef totaled 233,950 tonnes in March, up 8.6% over the year before. The average price also rose, 18.7%, to $5,814.80 per tonne.

According to Perosa, from ABIEC, the Chinese quota is the main concern of the beef industry today, since negotiations for a revision of the volume have not progressed and there is no prospect of a quick opening of new markets for the beef that would go to China.

In practice, the quota has reduced the market for Brazilian beef in China, since the Asian country had imported a total of 1.68 million tonnes in 2025.

Perosa said he does not believe that a triangulation of Brazilian beef to China via Vietnam, which opened its market to Brazilian beef last year but consumes more buffalo, or via Hong Kong, which imports offal from Brazil and sends it to China, is viable.

He also noted that the quota system created by Beijing will likely also be in force for 2027 and 2028, which means that it will be necessary to continue seeking alternative markets.

For Perosa, China’s justification for imposing quotas is political, lacking any technical basis, because Chinese livestock farming is unable to supply the product at competitive prices.

“The Chinese safeguard measures affect all countries, but Brazil suffered the biggest reduction [in exports]. They must have thought they could take more from Brazil because the impact wouldn’t be as great, since we export many other commodities [to China], like soybeans. But it has a huge impact on our sector because China was the destination for 46% of our beef exports last year,” he lamented.

According to him, the solution is to continue negotiating, focus on opening new markets where beef consumption is high, and increase productivity.

Despite the changes in the dynamics of beef exports, there are no signs of change in cattle feedlots in 2026, according to Alcides Torres of Scot. “According to our own estimate, this year we should have between nine and ten million head in feedlots, but it has nothing to do with this dynamic caused by the imposition of the Chinese tariffs,” he said.

He noted that events such as the FIFA World Cup and the October elections in Brazil tend to support domestic consumption, which contributes to the continuation of the sector’s plans to invest in intensive cattle finishing.

Source: Valor International

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