Brazil reaches half of China’s beef quota; tariffs expected soon

China’s Ministry of Commerce said, on Saturday (May 9), that Brazil reached 50% of the beef quota imposed by Beijing this year under a safeguard measure.

Members of the private sector, however, say the figure could actually be higher if cargoes already shipped but not yet at Chinese ports are taken into account. As a result, Brazil could hit the limit before August.

Here’s a monthly breakdown of beef exports bound for China, according to the latest intelligence from Datamar:

Beef Exports | China | Jan 2023 – Mar 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

At the end of December, Beijing imposed a safeguard measure determining that countries exceeding the beef quota would be subject to a 55% tariff.

Brazil will face the tariff if it exceeds 1.1 million tonnes in 2026. To put that in perspective, China accounted for 48% of Brazil’s beef export volume in 2025, with 1.68 million tonnes worth $8.9 billion. The second-largest destination, the United States, took 271,800 tonnes worth $1.64 billion.

The measure, in force since January, will remain in place for three years.

The issue is very sensitive for the Brazilian government, since China is the main destination for Brazilian beef. The dispute led Brazil to try to negotiate alternatives, such as the redistribution of unused quotas from other countries, but that request was rejected by the Chinese authorities.

The government is now targeting other markets in an attempt to reduce the losses. The main focus is the United States, which is unable to supply its domestic market without imports, given strong demand and a reduction in its local herd.

Even so, Abiec, the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association, says no market is capable of filling the gap left by China.

The association projects a drop of about 10% in Brazilian beef exports in 2026 because of the Chinese safeguard measures.

That outlook contrasts with Brazil’s record beef production in 2025, which reached 11.1 million tonnes, up 7.2% from 2024, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics.

That performance, which lifted Brazil to the position of the world’s largest beef producer and exporter, is now threatened by the uncertainty created by the Chinese measure, which could also lead to a reduction in Brazil’s herd if meatpackers are unable to redirect production.

Source: Folha de São Paulo

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