Argentina energy exports drive strongest first-half trade surplus since 2009

Argentina posted a trade surplus of nearly $14 billion in the first half of 2026, its strongest first-half result in constant dollar terms since 2009, as the energy sector emerged as one of the main engines behind the country’s foreign-exchange inflows.

The result was five times higher than the $2.76 billion surplus recorded in the same period of 2025. Once again, energy was a key factor behind the improvement.

The surplus in Argentina’s fuels and energy trade reached almost $6 billion in the first half, the highest level of the century, adding $2.3 billion compared with the first six months of last year.

The turnaround highlights the growing weight of Argentina energy exports, especially oil and gas linked to Vaca Muerta, in the country’s external accounts. For years, energy had been one of Argentina’s main sources of trade pressure because of high import needs. That dynamic is now shifting as unconventional production expands and exports gain scale.

According to consulting firm Equilibra, sectors outside agriculture and energy also improved sharply. Excluding those two areas, the rest of the economy moved from a deficit of nearly $1 billion in the first half of 2025 to a surplus of almost $8 billion this year.

Total exports reached $49.41 billion in the first half, up 24% year over year. The increase reflected both higher volumes, up 14%, and better prices, up 9%. Imports totaled $35.44 billion, down 4%, with the decline concentrated in parts and accessories, capital goods and intermediate inputs, in line with weaker industrial activity.

Consulting firm LCG also said the energy complex explained a large part of the first-half improvement, though not all of it. The firm estimated that about 20% of the increase in the trade surplus compared with 2025 came from a stronger fuels and energy balance. Nearly half of the improvement, meanwhile, reflected a smaller deficit in less dynamic sectors of the economy, where the shortfall narrowed from $22 billion to $17 billion.

Looking ahead, LCG expects the pace to moderate as exports lose some momentum. Even so, the firm projects a trade surplus of around $20 billion for all of 2026, with energy remaining one of the main pillars of that forecast.

Energy companies also boost dollar inflows through debt markets

The energy sector’s contribution to Argentina’s supply of dollars is not limited to oil and gas exports. Companies are also raising funds through corporate bond issues to finance investment, with the industry expected to invest nearly $14 billion this year.

In the first half, Argentina’s corporate bond market placed $9.63 billion, according to a report by fund manager Ricsa ALyC. Energy companies accounted for 55% of that total, or $5.31 billion, with YPF, Pampa Energía and Edenor among the main issuers.

Average rates rose to 8.1% per year in dollars, compared with 7.3% a year earlier. But borrowing costs varied widely across companies. Pampa Energía secured financing at 5%, while CGC paid as much as 12%, a spread of 640 basis points that points to sharper credit differentiation within the sector.

Maturity did not fully explain the rate gap. Vista Energy and Pampa Energía obtained funding for more than 10 years at rates below 8% annually, while Crown Point and CGC paid between 11% and 12% for debt with maturities of only two to three years.

Vaca Muerta reshapes Argentina’s energy balance

The shift is not only cyclical. Argentina’s energy sector, which for more than a decade acted as one of the country’s main drains on foreign currency, has become a source of hard-currency generation.

Energy imports once exceeded $12 billion a year. According to data from the Chamber of Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production, known as CEPH, the sector moved from a trade deficit of $6.9 billion in 2013, its worst result on record, to a surplus of $7.83 billion in 2025. That represents a turnaround of more than $14.7 billion in just over a decade.

The change was made possible by the rapid growth of unconventional production in Vaca Muerta, which now accounts for more than two-thirds of Argentina’s oil output.

Energy consultant Daniel Gerold expects Argentina’s energy trade balance to post a surplus of between $9.6 billion and $11.1 billion this year, depending on volatility in international oil prices. The source text cited oil at $91 per barrel.

The other side of the dollar boom

The new supply of foreign currency should also be viewed against the continued domestic demand for dollars. With exchange-rate conditions calmer this year, households are buying around $2 billion per month for savings, a very high level by historical standards.

Last year, an election year, portfolio dollarization exceeded $30 billion. This year, despite the absence of national elections, it is expected to reach around $20 billion.

That demand is being offset by new sources of foreign-currency supply across the economy. Agriculture contributed about $2 billion per month in the first half, during the peak of the harvest season. Corporate bond issuance added close to $1.5 billion per month, while financial loans that companies are required to settle locally brought in another $1 billion per month.

The oil, gas and mining complex added nearly $2 billion per month. In 2023, that contribution was close to zero, and in earlier years the sector generated net demand for foreign currency rather than supply.

That new flow of dollars can help finance household dollar purchases without adding immediate stress to the foreign-exchange market.

Still, economists warn that the balance could become more challenging if Argentina’s economy starts growing more strongly. Juan Battaglia, chief economist at Cucchiara y Cía., noted that imports typically rise when GDP expands. Historically, every percentage point of GDP growth has translated into roughly three percentage points of import growth.

Even using a more conservative two-to-one ratio, a 3% expansion in the economy would lift imports by 6%, creating additional demand for foreign currency of about $4.5 billion. That is equivalent to exporting more than 150,000 barrels of oil per day at $75 per barrel.

For Argentina, that means the energy sector will need to keep generating surplus dollars if the country is to preserve its current foreign-exchange balance. For exporters, investors and logistics operators, the rise of Argentina energy exports marks one of the most important structural changes in the country’s trade outlook.

Source: La Nación

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