From buyer to rival: China reshapes global poultry trade, raising risks for Brazil

For decades, China was seen primarily as the world’s largest food buyer. That role is now beginning to change. In a report released on Monday, July 20, BTG Pactual highlighted what it described as a “silent transformation” with the potential to reshape the global poultry market: while China remains a major importer, it is rapidly emerging as an important exporter of chicken meat.

The bank said the shift is intensifying competition in international markets and could pose a structural threat to established exporters such as Brazil.

See below at the historical trend of Brazilian chicken meat exports since January 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Chicken Meat Exports | Jan 2022 to May 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

According to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Chinese chicken exports rose 41% in 2025 to nearly 1.1 million metric tons and are expected to reach 1.4 million metric tons in 2026.

Should that forecast materialize, China would become the world’s third-largest poultry exporter, behind only Brazil and the United States.

The rise has been swift. In less than a decade, China’s share of global chicken exports is expected to climb from almost negligible levels to about 9.5%.

Rising production fuels export competition

BTG said China’s export growth is being driven by a sharp expansion in domestic production.

China is already the world’s second-largest chicken producer. The USDA expects output to rise 7% in 2025 and a further 5% in 2026, reaching 17.3 million metric tons. Some industry estimates cited by the bank point to even faster, double-digit growth.

“The immediate effect is straightforward: more supply available for export, greater competition and, all else being equal, additional pressure on global chicken prices,” analysts Thiago Duarte and Guilherme Guttilla said.

Public data on production costs among Chinese poultry companies remain limited. Even so, BTG noted that China’s track record of rapidly building scale across several industries suggests it could eventually become one of the world’s lowest-cost producers.

Why the shift matters for Brazil

The bank said the composition of China’s poultry trade is especially relevant for Brazilian exporters.

China continues to import large volumes of chicken feet and other products that enjoy strong domestic demand. At the same time, it is increasing exports of cuts that are less popular with Chinese consumers, particularly chicken breast.

That is a sensitive area for Brazil.

Chicken breast accounted for 22% of Brazil’s total poultry export volume over the past 12 months. It was the country’s largest individual exported cut and one of its higher-value products.

Several leading buyers of Brazilian chicken breast, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are also geographically closer to China. That could give Chinese exporters a freight and transit-time advantage in markets that are strategically important to Brazil.

BTG said that if China continues expanding production and gains access to additional overseas markets, it could become a long-term competitor to Brazilian poultry processors, putting pressure on global prices and challenging Brazil’s position in some of its most important export destinations.

Source: Money Times

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