Brazilian exports hit by Mexico tariffs fall 42.5% in first half, CNI says

Brazilian exports of products covered by Mexico’s new tariffs fell 42.5% in the first half of 2026 compared with the average for the same period over the previous three years, according to a study released by Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry, or CNI.

The decline amounted to $91.5 million.

CNI attributed the drop to Mexico’s Strategic Industries Protection Program, which took effect in January and raised import duties on 1,463 tariff lines. In some cases, the rates exceed 50%.

The organization estimates that around $665 million in Brazilian exports could be affected by the measures.

CNI is calling on Mexico to exempt Brazilian goods from the new tariffs and urging both countries to accelerate negotiations toward a free trade agreement.

According to the organization, such an agreement could add $13.8 billion to their combined gross domestic product, increase bilateral trade by $3.2 billion and attract approximately $8 billion in investment.

Intermediate goods accounted for 78.1% of the decline in Brazilian exports, the study found. Of the 171 tariff-affected Brazilian products shipped to Mexico between January and June, 113 recorded lower sales.

The automotive industry accounted for 51.8% of the overall decline, followed by rubber and plastics at 9.1%, metals at 8%, leather and footwear at 7.4%, chemicals at 5.9%, pulp and paper at 5.8%, and machinery and equipment at 5.6%.

The chart below, prepared using DataLiner data, compares Brazil’s export performance for coated paper and paperboard to Mexico in recent years:

Coated Paper and Paperboard Exports to Mexico | Jan-May 2023-2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Exports of some products, including iron or steel pipes used in oil and gas pipelines, stopped entirely.

CNI also identified 474 potential export opportunities for Brazil’s manufacturing industry in the Mexican market. However, 456 of them, or 90.3%, are subject to the tariffs currently in force, limiting the scope for further growth in bilateral trade.

Source: Valor Econômico

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