Trump Appears to Exclude Argentina From Cheap Beef Imports Plan

Amid this information vacuum, some have speculated that Argentina—with whom Trump proposed a similar deal last year—could help to supply some of the beef required for the plan, drawing a sharp rebuke from ranchers and members of Congress in both parties.

Argentina’s beef exports to the United States are currently expanding rapidly. According to a Datamar overview, Argentina exported 4,459 TEUs in the first half of 2026, up 197.6% from the previous year.

Beef Exports to the United States | Argentina | Jan 2023 – Jun 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

However, according to a fact sheet released by the White House alongside Trump’s proclamation, the deal increases the amount of beef eligible for lower tariff rates, but “does not modify any commitments related to beef for countries with a free trade agreement with the United States, and does not apply to countries with country-specific beef quotas.”

Countries which fall under this definition include some of America’s main importers, like Argentina, as well as Canada and Mexico, courtesy of the USMCA free trade agreement.

“The Trump administration defined the tariff exemption for the import of 300,000 tons of beef, excluding countries that have tariff-rate quotas with preferential access such as Uruguay, Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand,” according to Fernando Herrera, president of the Association of Argentine Producer-Exporters, a nonprofit trade group which represents cattle producers involved in beef exports.

The Canadian Cattle Association, an advocacy group for the country’s producers and packers, likewise told Newsweek that “Canada and Mexico are not subject to beef import restrictions in the USA so there are no changes for either of our countries.”

A New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade spokesperson told Newsweek via email Thursday night that the country has its own “dedicated quota access to the United States for beef, and we are yet to fill the quota for this year.” The spokesperson added that they have not been approached about the plan.

Australia would appear to be twice excluded, given its country-specific beef quota alongside its Free Trade Agreement with the U.S.

“There is no direct change to Australia’s arrangements as a result of last night’s presidential proclamation,” said Paul da Silva, the regional manager for North America at Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA)—the country’s principal marketing and research organization for the red meat industry.

So, Who Is Left?

The countries seemingly excluded from the plan include many of America’s largest sources of imported beef, though Brazil, its leading foreign supplier, appears eligible.

Herrera told Newsweek that the terms of the deal mean “it is taken for granted that nearly all of the supply should come from Brazil,” which he described as “the country with the greatest potential to take advantage of this quota, as they have both the volume and fluid commercial contacts in the U.S.”

“Perhaps Paraguay can also participate, but on a smaller scale,” he added.

Colin Carter, a professor emeritus of agricultural and resource economics at the University of California, Davis, likewise pointed to Brazil as the most obvious option, and said that Nicaragua could supply some of the 300,000 metric tons.

“Looks like JBS is going to do a lot of business if this is how [Trump’s order] is interpreted,” said David Anderson, an economist with Texas A&M University’s agricultural economics department.

Anderson told Newsweek that Brazil may also be able to meet this order, given the strict tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system China has imposed on its beef imports for 2026.

But this has done little to reduce the confusion that still surrounds this and other elements of the plan, set to take effect from September 1.

“The idea that someone will sell the beef at a 25 percent discount “raises more questions than it answers,” Charlebois told Newsweek, adding that unless the government is subsidizing the distributor, “it is difficult to see how this would work commercially.”

“The administration should identify the intermediary and explain who is absorbing the difference,” he said.

“Really, who knows?” Anderson added. “That is a lot of beef in a very short period of time. It could cause some real volatility in wholesale markets if this really comes in.”

Source: Newsweek