Anea raises Brazil cotton production forecast to 4.18 million tons

Brazil cotton production in the 2025/26 crop year is expected to reach 4.178 million metric tons of lint, according to the August supply and demand table released by Anea, Brazil’s national association of cotton exporters.

The new estimate is 172,000 metric tons above the 4.006 million tons projected in June, an increase of 4.3% in just two months.

The revision reinforces expectations for another Brazilian cotton crop above 4 million tons, at a time when the country continues to ship large volumes to international markets. For 2026, Anea estimates exports at 3.418 million metric tons, including 1.814 million tons in the first half of the year and 1.604 million tons in the second.

That export forecast is 34,000 tons above the June estimate and keeps Brazilian shipments close to recent record levels. In the marketing year that ended in June, Brazil had already posted strong export performance, with monthly records in seven of the 12 months.

According to Datamar foreign trade data, Brazilian cotton exports reached 142,079 TEUs in the first half of 2026, up 29.6% from the same period a year earlier. The chart below shows the monthly cotton export volumes recorded on the DataLiner platform:

Cotton Exports | H1 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The outlook for growth also extends to the next crop. Anea’s projection for 2026/27 rose to 4.029 million metric tons in August, up from 3.960 million tons in June — an increase of 69,000 tons.

For 2027, the export forecast rose from 3.230 million to 3.411 million metric tons between June and August, an increase of 181,000 tons, or 5.6%. The estimate includes shipments of 1.8 million tons in the first half of the year and 1.611 million tons in the second.

Anea President Dawid Wajs said the figures show that Brazil’s larger cotton supply is being matched by the country’s ability to expand its role in international trade.

“The revisions released this month confirm the positive trajectory of Brazilian cotton. We see a new increase in the crop estimate, reflecting productivity gains and investments made by producers. At the same time, exports remain at historically high levels, showing strong international demand for Brazilian cotton,” he said.

Larger supply and comfortable stocks

According to Wajs, even with the higher export forecast, greater cotton availability has also lifted the estimate for stocks at the end of 2026. The projection rose from 2.794 million metric tons in June to 2.914 million tons in August, a difference of 120,000 tons.

Wajs said higher stocks should also be viewed as a supply-security advantage in an international market exposed to swings in production, logistics and demand.

“A more comfortable level of stocks increases Brazil’s ability to serve customers with regularity and predictability. That becomes important in a global environment still marked by economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The country now has scale production, competitiveness and cotton availability to sustain long-term commercial relationships,” he said.

Domestic consumption

Anea also projects domestic cotton consumption at 745,000 metric tons in 2026, up from the 729,000 tons estimated in June.

For 2027, the domestic consumption forecast was also revised upward, from 732,000 to 753,000 metric tons.

The latest revision to Brazil cotton production strengthens the country’s position as one of the key suppliers in global cotton trade, with larger crops, strong export flows and higher stock levels supporting both international buyers and domestic demand.

Source: Compre Rural, with Anea

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