Argentina 2027 trade outlook points to record exports but smaller surplus

Argentina’s 2027 budget forecasts record levels of exports and imports, but a smaller trade surplus as stronger economic activity is expected to lift demand for foreign goods and services.

The government projects exports of goods and services at US$133.98 billion in 2027, up about 7.3% from its estimate for 2026. Imports are expected to rise faster, reaching US$118.42 billion, a 9.8% increase from the previous year’s projected level.

As a result, Argentina’s trade surplus in goods and services is forecast at US$15.56 billion in 2027, below the US$16.95 billion estimated for 2026.

For exporters, shipping companies and logistics operators, the projections point to a changing trade environment. Argentina expects export growth to continue, supported by sectors such as energy, mining and agribusiness, but the faster rise in imports could reshape cargo flows and reduce the external surplus.

Energy and mining gain weight in exports

The budget scenario assumes exports will remain one of the main drivers of activity. That outlook is tied in part to Vaca Muerta, which has not yet reached peak production, and to the expansion of mining, including gold, silver and lithium.

For the logistics market, that shift matters because it reduces Argentina’s dependence on the seasonal rhythm of agricultural exports. Higher energy and mining shipments can create steadier demand for infrastructure, storage, inland transport, port access and specialized export services.

Agribusiness will remain central to Argentina’s foreign trade, but the projected growth of hydrocarbons and minerals points to a broader export base. That could affect the composition of cargo handled by ports and inland corridors over the next several years.

Imports expected to rise faster

The main reason for the smaller projected surplus is the expected jump in imports. A stronger recovery in domestic activity would likely increase purchases of capital goods, intermediate goods, inputs and consumer products.

That would mark a change from 2026, when weak industrial activity and low investment helped keep imports contained. Ámbito cited private-sector analysis suggesting that the 2026 goods trade surplus could exceed US$20 billion, supported by firm exports and subdued import demand.

Consultancy LCG said Argentina’s trade balance should remain favorable in 2026, although the second half of the year may be more challenging as agricultural exports lose seasonal momentum. Abeceb also pointed to energy as a structural export driver, while noting that mining should continue to add support through gold, silver and lithium.

Trade flows could become less seasonal

If energy and mining continue gaining share, Argentina’s export logistics may become less concentrated around the agricultural calendar. That could support steadier demand for ports, pipelines, rail, trucking, storage and long-haul shipping services.

At the same time, stronger imports would increase pressure on containerized and industrial supply chains, especially if investment and manufacturing activity recover. A higher import bill could also bring more demand for customs services, warehousing, inland distribution and port capacity.

The budget therefore points to two simultaneous movements: exports are expected to reach a new high, but imports may rise even faster. For Argentina’s trade and logistics sector, the result would be a still-positive external balance, but with more intense two-way cargo flows and a smaller cushion in the trade surplus.

Source: Ámbito Argentina

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