Raw sugar prices hit highest since March 2025 on India demand, Brazil delays

Raw sugar futures extended their gains to the highest level since March 2025 as strong import demand from India and milling delays in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, fueled concerns over tighter supplies.

The market has been closely watching how much sugar India may import to replenish domestic stocks. The country opened a duty-free import quota in August after domestic sugar prices reached a record high, a rare move for the world’s second-largest producer.

Indian mills have applied for permits to import nearly 800,000 metric tons of raw sugar since the government opened the quota.

The volume represents around 80% of the total allowed, Ashwini Srivastava, joint secretary for sugar at India’s Food Ministry, said at the India Sugar & Bio-Energy Conference in New Delhi. Refiners have also requested permission to sell another 265,000 tons on the domestic market that had previously been intended for re-export.

Futures rose as much as 1.6% in New York and were up nearly 3% for the week.

Supply outlook tightens

Raw sugar prices have climbed around 30% this year as the outlook for the 2026/27 season shifted from a surplus toward a shortage.

The International Sugar Organization expects a global deficit of about 260,000 metric tons next season, with a strengthening El Niño threatening crops in Asia.

The weather phenomenon is associated with dry conditions in India. Rainfall during the country’s monsoon season, which ends this month and is crucial for sugarcane production, has been running around 15% below normal levels.

In Brazil, heavy rainfall across the Center-South is disrupting milling, while further rain is forecast for major producing areas in São Paulo state, StoneX analyst Rafael Crestana wrote in a note.

The chart below shows the main destinations for Brazilian sugar exports in the first seven months of 2026, ranked by market share. The data come from Datamar:

Top Destinations for Sugar Exports | Jan-Jul 2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Higher oil prices are also providing support to sugar markets because they can encourage mills to divert more sugarcane toward ethanol production, potentially limiting sugar output.

Source: Bloomberg Línea

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