Anec cuts November soybean export forecast to 4.4 million tonnes

The National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) has reduced its projection for soybean exports in November to 4.40 million tonnes, a 6.6% drop from the estimate of 4.71 million tonnes released last week. The volume, however, still represents an 88% increase compared with the 2.34 million tonnes shipped in November 2024. Despite the negative revision, performance remains consistent with off-season seasonality, staying below the 6.4 million tonnes shipped in October.

From January to October, Brazil exported 101.48 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, consolidating a record flow for the cycle. For soybean meal, the projection fell to 2.5 million tonnes, down 6.9% from the previous estimate of 2.68 million tonnes. The volume represents a 44.5% increase compared with the 1.73 million tonnes shipped in November 2024, maintaining the recovery of the by-product after periods of weaker demand in previous months. A total of 19.13 million tonnes of meal were exported from January to October.

For corn, Anec reduced the November projection range to 5.80 million to 6.42 million tonnes, down from 5.80 million to 6.92 million tonnes. The association now works with an effective average of 6.11 million tonnes for its calculations, down 3.9% from the average of 6.36 million tonnes used last week. The volume represents a 24.2% increase compared with the 4.92 million tonnes exported in November 2024. Anec noted the possibility of smaller shipments due to operational constraints. Year-to-date through October, 29.64 million tonnes have been shipped.

See below a historical overview of Brazilian corn exports starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Corn Exports | Jan 2022 to Sep 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Port line-up for the week of November 23 to 29 indicates 1.04 million tonnes of soybean shipments, up 8.4% from 961.7 thousand tonnes scheduled for the previous week (Nov 16–22). The main ports were Santos (272.8 thousand t), Paranaguá (63 thousand t), and São Luís/Itaqui (190.4 thousand t). For corn, 1.67 million tonnes are scheduled, a 10.1% increase from 1.52 million tonnes last week, led by Santos (772.6 thousand t), Paranaguá (310 thousand t) and Barcarena (270 thousand t).

Soybean meal is expected to reach 850.1 thousand tonnes, up 4.5% from the 813.6 thousand tonnes scheduled the previous week, with Santos (403.2 thousand t), Paranaguá (340.1 thousand t) and São Francisco do Sul (88.3 thousand t) standing out. Between November 16 and 22, effective shipments totaled 840 thousand tonnes of soybeans, down 35.4% from 1.30 million tonnes shipped during November 9–15. The main volumes departed through Santos (271 thousand t), Paranaguá (205.4 thousand t) and Rio Grande (131.7 thousand t). Corn shipments reached 1.12 million tonnes, down 27.0% from 1.54 million tonnes the previous week, concentrated in Santos (505.7 thousand t), Barcarena (252.1 thousand t) and Santarém (128.4 thousand t). Soybean meal totaled 595 thousand tonnes, a 22.4% drop from 767.1 thousand tonnes in the prior week.

The combined total of projected exports for November should range from 12.96 million to 13.59 million tonnes, with an average of 13.27 million tonnes, representing an increase of 46.1% compared with the 9.08 million tonnes shipped in November 2024. The consolidated projection is down 5.4% from the previous estimate of 14.04 million tonnes.

Anec emphasizes that volumes may still be adjusted until the end of the month depending on weather and operational conditions at ports. From January to November — considering projections for the month — Brazil is expected to reach 105.87 million tonnes of soybean exports, an increase of 8.8% compared with 97.29 million tonnes in the same period of 2024.

For soybean meal, the estimate is 21.62 million tonnes, down 5.3% from 22.84 million tonnes.

For corn, the volume should range from 35.44 million to 36.07 million tonnes, a decrease of 6.3% to 4.7% from the 37.83 million tonnes recorded in the same period last year. The total volume across products (soybeans, soybean meal, corn and wheat) may reach 165 million tonnes in the period, an increase of 2.8% compared with 160.55 million tonnes from January to November 2024.

Source: Compre Rural

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