Argentina trade surplus reaches $2.1bn in July as exports slip monthly

Argentina posted a US$2.12 billion trade surplus in July, extending its positive trade balance streak to 32 consecutive months, according to data from national statistics agency INDEC.

The result was US$1.21 billion higher than in July 2025, when the country recorded a US$907 million surplus. Total trade reached US$15.59 billion, up 6.7% year over year.

The monthly comparison, however, showed softer momentum. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports fell 4.9% from June, while imports declined 4.5%. The July surplus also came in below the US$2.24 billion recorded the previous month.

Even so, the balance remains high and continues to add foreign-exchange supply to Argentina’s economy. The key question for the second half is whether the surplus can be sustained if economic activity recovers and import demand strengthens, especially as export growth becomes increasingly dependent on new drivers beyond agriculture.

Energy drives export growth

Argentina’s exports totaled US$8.85 billion in July, up 14.1% from the same month last year. The increase was driven mainly by prices, which rose 12.4%, while export volumes grew only 1.5%.

The limited growth in physical shipments was concentrated entirely in fuels and energy, according to analysts cited in the report.

Fuels and energy were again the most dynamic export category. Shipments jumped 97.8% year over year to US$1.51 billion, while volumes rose 67.6%. Crude oil was the main driver, with exports of US$1.02 billion.

The sector accounted for roughly 68% of the total year-on-year increase in Argentina’s July exports, adding about US$744 million out of a total gain of US$1.09 billion.

The performance reflects the growing role of Vaca Muerta in Argentina’s trade flows. National crude production reached a record 914,900 barrels per day in June, with the shale formation in Neuquén now accounting for about 70% of total output. Higher production and expanding infrastructure are helping Argentina reduce energy imports while increasing export capacity.

Beef, fisheries and vehicles add support

Outside energy, beef, fisheries and vehicles also contributed to export growth.

According to Datamar data, Argentina’s beef exports maintained strong momentum, with 27,124 TEUs shipped in the first half of 2026. The chart below shows the growth in shipments of this product:

Argentina Beef Exports | Jan 2023 – Jun 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Beef sales to the United States were one of the highlights. In the first half of the year, Argentine beef shipments to the U.S. rose 185% in volume and 243% in value, while the additional quota for the third quarter was exhausted in the first week of July.

The automotive sector also showed stronger export performance. Vehicle exports rose sharply, with sales to Brazil up 26% year over year. That improvement, however, contrasted with a 16% drop in domestic production and a 31.9% decline in wholesale sales in Argentina’s local market, underscoring the gap between external demand and weak domestic consumption.

Analysts also pointed to pickups as a key driver, as part of Argentina’s production shifted from models focused on the domestic market to vehicles with stronger export potential.

Agriculture shows mixed performance

Agricultural manufactures rose 4.9% in value, although volumes fell 7.2%. Primary products declined 0.6%, mainly because soybean exports dropped 73.7%.

That comparison was affected by an unusually high base in 2025, when a temporary cut in export taxes brought forward foreign sales. As a result, the decline in primary products appears to reflect a normalization from an exceptional period and a shift toward more processed goods, rather than a broad retreat in Argentina’s agricultural exports.

Other segments were weaker. Wine, pharmaceuticals and processed foods posted softer performance, while the wine sector continues to face lower demand linked to a global decline in alcohol consumption.

Imports fall as investment remains weak

Argentina imported US$6.74 billion in July, down 1.7% year over year. The decline was entirely explained by volumes, which fell 9.2%, while import prices rose 8.4%.

The composition of imports pointed to continued weakness in investment. Volumes of capital goods fell by nearly 13%, while parts and accessories for capital goods dropped by around 23%.

Consulting firms cited in the report said capital goods and related parts have declined every month this year, reflecting still-weak investment and industrial activity.

The import data also require nuance. Some of the decline in capital goods came from lower purchases of imported pickups, which are being replaced by local production. That does not necessarily point to weaker activity.

At the same time, imports of phones and computers increased, while machinery itself showed little growth.

Intermediate goods were the only major economic-use category to rise in value, up 16.5%. But part of that increase came from imported soybeans used for local processing and later re-export, making the figure less representative of a broad recovery in domestic demand.

Fuel and lubricant imports also fell, which carries a more favorable reading. Volumes dropped 23.8% year over year as domestic hydrocarbon production increased and Argentina became less dependent on imported energy.

Consumer goods imports declined 7.3% in value and 5.2% in volume, consistent with subdued domestic demand.

Seven-month surplus tops $16bn

Argentina’s accumulated trade surplus reached US$16.08 billion in the first seven months of 2026, compared with US$3.67 billion in the same period of 2025. The result already exceeds the surplus recorded for all of last year.

The balance varied sharply by trade partner. China remained Argentina’s largest bilateral deficit, with a US$845 million gap. Mercosur followed with a US$370 million deficit, while Brazil remained the country’s largest individual trade partner and posted a US$349 million surplus over Argentina.

The largest surpluses came from the rest of ALADI, at US$938 million; India, at US$496 million; and the USMCA bloc — the United States, Mexico and Canada — at US$467 million.

Energy explained a significant share of the improvement, though not all of it. According to LCG, about 25% of the increase in the accumulated surplus was linked to the stronger energy balance, while roughly 40% came from smaller deficits in other sectors.

Outlook depends on imports and new export drivers

For the second half of the year, analysts expect Argentina’s trade balance to remain favorable but face greater challenges.

LCG expects trade flows to become less seasonal as fuels gain importance, while agricultural export growth could moderate. The firm projects total exports of around US$100 billion for 2026 and a trade surplus above US$20 billion.

Abeceb expects a similar trend, with energy consolidating as a structural export driver and mining adding momentum through gold, silver and lithium. On the import side, weak industrial activity and low investment continue to limit purchases of capital goods, although a recovery in activity could revive that demand in the coming months.

The latest market expectations survey from Argentina’s central bank projects exports of US$100.21 billion and imports of US$76.77 billion for 2026, implying a trade surplus of about US$23.4 billion.

For exporters, shipping lines, port operators and logistics companies, Argentina’s July data point to a changing trade profile. Agriculture remains important, but energy and mining are starting to reduce dependence on the seasonal farm-export cycle.

The test will come if domestic activity regains momentum and import demand rises. For now, higher prices, weaker imports and growing energy exports are keeping the Argentina trade surplus at historically high levels.

Source: Ámbito

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