Brazil corn exports slow as local grain loses competitiveness

Brazil corn exports rose 5.8% year on year between February and July, but shipments have begun to lose momentum as the country’s grain becomes less competitive in international markets.

Analysts at Itaú BBA said in a report released Tuesday, August 18, that the slowdown became evident in July, when Brazilian corn exports fell 20% from the same month in 2025.

“Furthermore, the latest vessel lineup indications point to another decline in August, suggesting a weaker performance than a year earlier,” the bank said.

Itaú BBA expects Brazil to export 5.2 million metric tons of corn in August, down 35% from the 8.1 million metric tons shipped in the same month last year.

“At this point, Brazilian corn is more expensive than competing supplies from the United States, Argentina and Ukraine, creating the possibility of losing export market share,” the analysts said.

For now, Itaú BBA is maintaining its forecast of 40 million metric tons for Brazil corn exports in the February 2026-January 2027 marketing cycle.

The bank warned, however, that the estimate could be revised downward if August shipments do in fact come in weaker than expected.

In the January-June period of 2026, Brazil’s corn export volumes were 0.7% lower than in the same period a year earlier. It is worth noting, however, that most corn exports usually take place in the second half of the year, a pattern expected to repeat in 2026. The chart below shows the overall trajectory of grain shipments:

Corn Exports | Jan 2023 – Jun 2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

In international markets, analysts believe corn prices will remain sensitive to geopolitical risks in the Black Sea and the evolution of global demand, despite forecasts for a larger U.S. crop.

Source: Globo Rural

Sharing is caring!