Brazil Cuts 2026 Trade Surplus Forecast to $84.4 Billion

Lower oil price projections prompted the Brazilian government to cut its forecast for the country’s 2026 trade surplus from $90 billion to $84.4 billion.

Despite the reduction, the result projected by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) would still represent a 24% increase over the trade surplus recorded in 2025.

In September, Brazil posted a $7.74 billion surplus, more than double the result recorded in the same month last year.

Brazil Trade Surplus Forecast Revised Lower

The revision to the 2026 estimate is mainly related to lower oil prices. Crude oil reached as high as $138 per barrel in April, following the United States’ entry into the war with Iran, before subsequently retreating.

Even after oil prices increased in recent weeks, Brent crude, the international benchmark, is trading at around $100 per barrel.

The decline affects both Brazilian exports and imports, as the country exports crude oil while also importing petroleum products.

The new MDIC forecast calls for:

• Exports: $382.5 billion, down from the previous forecast of $394.4 billion;
• Imports: $298.1 billion, compared with $304.4 billion previously;
• Trade surplus: $84.4 billion, down from $90 billion.

With the revision, the export forecast was reduced by $11.9 billion, while the import estimate was cut by $6.3 billion.

Even so, projected exports for 2026 would represent growth of 9.8% compared with 2025, while imports are expected to rise 6.4%.

Second-Largest Surplus

If the forecast is confirmed, the 2026 trade surplus will be the second largest on record, behind only the $98.9 billion result posted in 2023.

Brazil ended 2025 with a trade surplus of $68.1 billion.

This is the second revision to the MDIC estimate in 2026. The initial forecast called for a surplus of $72.1 billion, which was later raised to $90 billion in July.

To reach the newly projected result, Brazil will need to accumulate a surplus of approximately $22 billion between October and December. That figure is close to the $21.8 billion surplus recorded in the final quarter of 2025.

According to Herlon Brandão, director of MDIC’s Department of Foreign Trade Statistics and Studies, the estimate is close to the performance observed through September.

“We are forecasting three months ahead. So it is natural for these figures to converge and for us to already have a fairly consolidated picture of where the year will end,” Brandão said.

Trade Surplus Grows in September

Brazil’s trade balance posted a surplus of $7.74 billion in September, up 146.4% from the $3.14 billion recorded in the same month of 2025.

It was the largest monthly surplus since June, when the positive balance reached $9 billion.

Exports totaled $34.42 billion last month, up 12.9% year over year. Imports amounted to $26.68 billion, down 2.4%.

Source: Agência Brasil

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