Brazil exports to the Middle East fall 26% since start of war

Exports from Brazil to the Middle East fell 26% in March, the first month of the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

According to Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, export value to the region’s 15 countries dropped from $1.2 billion in March 2025 to $882 million this year.

The decline hit agribusiness products especially hard. Pork exports fell 59%. Chicken sales, the main product Brazil sells to the Middle East, dropped about 22%. Soybean sales to the region declined 25%.

According to the ministry’s statistics director, Herlon Brandão, it is still too early to measure the full effects of the conflict on international trade.

“To state that the conflict is affecting trade flows, we need to wait a little longer,” Brandão said.

At the end of March, Brazil reached an agreement with Turkey for the transit and temporary storage of agribusiness goods exported to the Middle East and Central Asia. The effects, however, are expected to begin appearing only in April’s trade balance data.

Oil

The positive highlight in Brazil’s export results was oil. Crude oil exports rose 70.4% in value, reaching $4.7 billion. In volume terms, growth was 75.9%.

According to the government, it is still not possible to say that the increase is directly linked to the conflict, although the war has already affected about 20% of global oil trade and significantly pushed up barrel prices on the international market.

In the coming months, oil sales are expected to decline. To offset part of its diesel subsidies, the government introduced a 12% tax on Brazilian oil exports in mid-March.

Global impact

Beyond the Middle East, other important markets also reduced purchases of Brazilian products in March compared with the same month last year.

Exports to the United States fell 9.1%, while shipments to Canada declined 10% and sales to Argentina dropped 5.9%.

Sales to China, however, rose 17.8% in the month, reinforcing the Asian country’s role as Brazil’s main trading partner.

Results

In trade with the United States, Brazil posted a deficit in March, with exports of $2.8 billion and imports of $3.3 billion. With China, by contrast, the country recorded a surplus of $3.8 billion during the period.

Exports to the European Union rose 7.3%, while sales to Argentina declined, though Brazil still maintained a positive trade balance with the neighboring country.

The picture reflects the initial effects of the war on global trade, with uneven impacts across regions and products, especially in supply chains linked to energy and food.

Despite the isolated declines, Brazil posted a trade surplus of $6.4 billion in March. Total exports reached $31.7 billion, up 10%, while imports rose 20.1% to $25.2 billion.

Source: Agência Brasil

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