Brazil Grain Production Expected to Rise Despite El Niño

Brazil grain production in the 2026/27 crop season is expected to exceed 367 million tonnes, up 1.4% from the previous season. The projection was released Thursday by Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) based on data from its first 2026/27 Grain Crop Survey.

Growth is being driven by an expansion in planted area, which is expected to rise 2.3% from the previous crop to 85.4 million hectares.

Brazil Grain Production by Crop

Soybean production is expected to post a modest increase of 0.7%, reaching 181.6 million tonnes. The planted area is projected to grow 1.4%, with Mato Grosso and Paraná standing out as the two states that together account for more than 60% of the area planted with the oilseed.

Corn production is expected to increase 2.4%, with total output potentially reaching 148 million tonnes. The increase is being driven by a 4.9% expansion in planted area compared with the 2025/26 cycle.

Bean production is expected to remain stable at an estimated 2.9 million tonnes. Planted area for the first crop is projected at 808,200 hectares, up 1.9% from the previous cycle. For the second crop, the source reports a figure of 963,100 tonnes, 1.1% below the previous season. Brazil harvests three bean crops each year.

Rice

Conab expects rice production to fall 2.9% despite an increase in planted area. Dryland rice planting is projected to expand 7.1%, while planting in flooded areas, which accounts for most of Brazil’s rice production, is expected to remain largely stable, with a slight increase of 0.4%.

The decline in productivity is attributed to the impact of El Niño, which is expected to affect rainfall levels in southern Brazil, where most of the country’s rice is produced.

According to the El Niño Panel, the weather phenomenon is expected to affect Brazil severely during the second half of 2026 and into early 2027. As a result, southern Brazil is forecast to receive rainfall above historical averages, with risks of flooding, severe storms and inundation in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.

The North and Northeast are expected to face the opposite problem, with severe drought and dry conditions. The Center-West and Southeast are expected to be affected mainly by extreme heat.

Wheat production is forecast at 5.7 million tonnes this year. The volume represents an approximate decline of 27.2% from the previous crop. The decrease is associated with both a reduction in planted area and lower cereal yields.

Exports

Brazilian soybean exports are estimated at 117.97 million tonnes, up 1.5% from the previous crop. Corn exports are expected to reach 43.9 million tonnes, although the main development for the cereal will be a 6.6% increase in domestic demand driven by ethanol production.

Datamar foreign trade data provide an overview of Brazilian corn exports through August 2026. In the first eight months of the year, Brazil exported approximately 11.8 million metric tons of corn. The chart below shows the share of the top 10 destination markets:

Top Destinations for Corn Exports | Jan-Aug 2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner – explore our trade data

Rice exports are projected to decline 17.4%. With production expected to fall, more of the crop is likely to be absorbed by the domestic market, where consumption is projected to remain stable.

Source: Agência Brasil

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